POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: CWE Rebounds Slightly
Nov-25 16:11
German and French front-month power futures are trending higher towards the end of the session amid a rebound in EUAs. Nordic December power settled lower with improved hydropower balances in the region.
- Nordic Base Power DEC 25 down 0.8% at 59.35 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 up 0.2% at 59.62 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 up 0.2% at 59.62 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.6% at 81.89 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 1.3% at 29.37 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is holding below €30/MWh despite a slight recovery yesterday as the market weighs uncertainty over progress towards Ukraine-Russia peace and mild weather in Europe heading into December.
- EUAs are trending higher in a late session rebound, through the daily high, with increased buying.
- European power demand is expected to rise by 1.2% on the year in 2026, compared with a 0.1% year-on-year increase in 2025.
- Germany’s BaFin said on Tuesday it plans to lower position limits of German power futures and options on the EEX exchange amid “significantly” high open interest.
- Germany plans to publish the framework for the gas power plant tender before Christmas, with tenders to start in March.
- French hydropower reserves last week edged up by 0.5 percentage points to 66.3% of capacity, narrowing the deficit to the same week last year and the five-year average.
- Veolia said that it is preparing a £1bn pipeline of projects that are expected to be awarded by 2030, linked to the rollout of its new “Ecothermal Grid” initiative in the UK.
- The FT has reported that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will not remove VAT on energy bills in the Budget and will instead reduce green levies on energy bills.
- Ireland’s SEMO issued a margin warning on Tuesday morning, effective from 09:00 GMT.
- Swiss hydropower reserves last week decreased by 3.9 percentage points last week to 70% of capacity, narrowing the deficit to the same week in 2024 but widening the deficit to the five-and ten-year averages.
- Shell has signed a ten-year PPA with Ferrari to supply a total of 650GWh of renewable electricity until 2034.
- Spanish hydropower reserves last week rose for the third consecutive week by 0.5 percentage points to 53.8% of capacity.
- Veolia announced on Tuesday it plans to phase-out coal-fired generation from Poznań's, Poland, district heating network by 2030.
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FED: MNI Fed Preview - October 2025: QT, Or Not QT
Oct-24 21:06
MNI's preview of the October FOMC has been published - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting on October 29, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%.
- This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labor market downside.
- Dissent to this decision should once again be limited to Gov Miran in favor of a 50bp cut.
- With limited new developments and official data to opine on, Chair Powell’s press conference will be eyed for affirmation that a December cut remains on track, as signalled by the most recent Dot Plot.
- He’s unlikely to give much away, but it would be surprise given the lack of data and relevant developments if he suggested that a further 2025 cut was in any greater doubt than it was 6 weeks earlier.
- Instead, we think focus in terms of action at this meeting will be on the balance sheet, with the Fed likely to announce an end to quantitative tightening amid diminishing reserve levels and nascent evidence of funding market pressures.
- We will also be watching for any news on the Fed’s communications framework, with an updated “Dot Plot” potentially unveiled at some point by year-end.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Oct 27
RATINGS: Moody's Lowers France's Outlook To Negative, Maintains Aa3 Rating
Oct-24 20:55
Moody's has lowered its outlook on France to negative from stable.
- Moody's was expected to at least lower the outlook, so this is not a surprise - there had been some risks perceived of a downgrade to A1 (from Aa3) in the domestic and foreign currency long-term issuer and domestic-currency senior unsecured ratings.
- Per the Moody's release: "The decision to change the outlook to negative reflects the increased risk that the fragmentation of the country's political landscape will continue to impair the functioning of France's legislative institutions. This political instability risks hampering the government's ability to address key policy challenges such as an elevated fiscal deficit, rising debt burden, and durable increase in borrowing costs, thus leading to a more rapid weakening in France's key fiscal metrics than we currently expect."
- Both S&P and Fitch have already downgraded France’s sovereign rating to the single-A bucket this year.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
Oct-24 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4016 @ 16:33 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.3979/3907 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3829 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3907, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3979.
