EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs, UKAs Rise on Equities Gains

Feb-18 16:27

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EUAs and UKAs Dec26 are rising on potential dip buying, while supported by gains in EU equities, wit...

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EGBS: Big Bobl Call Condor vs Put Spread Buyer

Jan-19 15:59

OEH6 116.75/117.5/117.75/119.25 call condor vs 116/115.25 put spread. Paper pays 3 vs 52s for the call condor in 14.9k

TARIFFS: Trump Declines To Rule Out Taking Greenland By Force - NBC

Jan-19 15:52

US President Donald Trump has declined to rule out taking Greenland by force in a brief interview with NBC News. The interview provided little new information. Tracking closely with Trump’s inclination to keep all options on the table during negotiations.

  • Trump said, “No comment,” when asked if he would use force to seize Greenland. When asked if he will follow through on plans to hit the European nations with tariffs absent a Greenland deal, Trump said, “I will, 100%."
  • Trump added: “Europe ought to focus on the war with Russia and Ukraine, because, frankly, you see what that’s gotten, them. That’s what Europe should focus on — not Greenland."
  • Considering the delayed timeline for the implementation of Greenland-related tariffs, especially with regard to the higher 25% tariff rate on June 1, markets are likely to assume that sufficient space has been provided for negotiations during this week’s World Economic Forum. 

POLITICAL RISK: AFP-France To Decline Trump 'Peace Board' Invite

Jan-19 15:49

AFP reports that, according to a source close to French President Emmanuel Macron, the French head of state "does not intend to answer favourably" to US President Donald Trump's invitation to join the 'Board of Peace' being set up to oversee the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. As noted a short time ago (see UKRAINE: Russian & Ukrainian Negotiators In Davos For Talks w/US Officials), the FT reported over the weekend that Trump may look to broaden the scope of the Board to include global flashpoints such as the war in Ukraine and Venezuela, rather than just Gaza. 

  • The invites extended to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko are likely to limit the involvement of Western leaders in the Board, either resulting in the group being lop-sided in favour of right-wing or authoritarian gov'ts such as those of Hungary, Argentina, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan, or the board failing to get off the ground.
  • Canadian PM Mark Carney said his gov't would take a seat on the Board, but it would not pay the USD1bln fee for permanent membership beyond the initial three-year term. UK PM Sir Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have yet to confirm their acceptance or rejection.
  • With tensions between the US and European nations already heavily strained due to Trump's demand on taking control of Greenland, a rejection of Trump's invite from Macron could see a further backlash from the White House.