EU: EU Commits To 'Fair' Conditionality Mechanism; No Immediate Funds To Hungary

Feb-01 11:30

Reports slowly emerging about the nature of the deal reached between senior EU leaders and Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán. The Guardian reports that "As part of today’s deal, leaders agreed to state in their summit conclusions that “the European Council recalls its December 2020 conclusions on the application of the conditionality mechanism.” The conditionality mechanism is what allows the EU to suspend funding to member states over rule of law issues.

  • Guardian: "...The mechanism was later triggered to suspend part of Hungary’s EU funding. In the 2020 conclusions, leaders stressed that “the application of the conditionality mechanism under the Regulation will be objective, fair, impartial and fact-based, ensuring due process, non discrimination and equal treatment of Member States.”
  • Essentially it would seem that Orbán has made the EU re-state its previous commitment that the conditionality mechanism would be used in a fair and impartial way.
  • Crucially, it does not indicate that any funds will be released immediately in exchange for Hungary dropping its veto. Nevertheless, it could emerge in the coming days or weeks that a section of the currently frozen EUR23bn in EU funding will be released at some point.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: US Equities are pushing lower in the past few minutes

Jan-02 11:25
  • Nothing too obvious on this quick leg lower in US Equities, led by the Emini, looks like potential fast money flow, with short term long bailing out just below 4810.00 in ESH4.
  • NQH4 on the follow is sold in over 1k, as the US starts to join the session.
  • Emini targets 4796.75, Yesterday's low right here, but holding for now.
  • Below the latter, sees 4784.75.
  • The Dollar print fresh high against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD, taking its cue from the pullback lower in Risk.

STIR: Fed Rate Path Starts At Higher End Of Holiday-Thinned Range

Jan-02 11:19
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off earlier highs but still sit up to 4bps higher from Friday’s close as part of broader FI cheapening and higher crude oil futures.
  • It leaves the rate path at the high end of last week’s holiday-trimmed trade, with 22.5bp of cumulative cuts for the March FOMC, 75bp for June and 154bp for Dec.
  • The path is mostly back at levels seen just before Friday's MNI Chicago PMI miss, with March pricing a little higher.
  • No scheduled Fedspeak today with Barkin (’24 voter) next on the cards tomorrow before the FOMC minutes will be watched closely for further details on the discussion around the FOMC’s pivot.

EUROZONE: Nomura: Lending Improves Again But Remains Subdued

Jan-02 11:17

Nomura write “we saw an uptick in Eurozone lending data in November, the second consecutive month of improvement. However, lending remains subdued versus what was seen prior to the hiking cycle, and we don't expect to see a material near-term rebound in net lending.”

  • “The ECB is focusing on the latter stages of the transmission mechanism, and the extent to which its monetary policy and the effects on the financial economy are spilling over to the labour market, activity and CPI.”
  • “The question here is whether the weak lending data are sending a noisy signal; are the balance sheets of households and corporates sufficiently robust post-pandemic to allow them to reduce their demand for lending without necessarily weighing on activity, and thus underscoring the risks that the transmission mechanism is now longer than previously or potentially less potent than previously?”