EQUITIES: Estoxx put seller
Jul-28 09:41
SX5E (15th Dec) 2650p, sold at 4.00 in 8k.
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BONDS: Italian Inflation Provides Relief Across Core FI
Jun-28 09:38
A softer-than-expected preliminary Italian inflation print provided a boost across the space in European morning trade, with curves mixed. Germany is leading gains at the short end, with UK yields lower at the long end; US yields are fairly steady (down 3-4bp) across the curve.
- With Italy's inflation "miss" seen as a positive harbinger for the key upcoming eurozone inflation readings this week, bringing Bunds well off session lows, ECB terminal pricing has pulled back a couple of basis points on the day.
- Periphery EGBs are underperforming: a comment by ECB's Vujcic and a sources report by Bloomberg earlier pointed to the ECB considering more aggressive balance sheet normalisation.
- Data the rest of the session is 2nd tier, with US mortgage applications, trade balance, and inventories data.
- The main highlight is a Sintra event featuring Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BOE's Bailey, and BOJ's Ueda. We also hear from BOE's Pill later this morning, and it's likely there will be more sideline comments, especially from ECB participants.
- US supply includes $22B 2Y FRN and $35B 7Y Note auctions.
- Later (1630ET) we get the Fed's annual bank stress test results.
Latest levels:
- Sep US 10Y futures (TY) up 7/32 at 113-01.5 (L: 112-26.5 / H: 113-2)
- Sep Bund futures (RX) up 41 ticks at 134.57 (L: 133.92 / H: 134.59)
- Sep Gilt futures (G) up 62 ticks at 96.04 (L: 95.25 / H: 96.07)
- Italy / German 10-Yr spread 1.5bps wider at 164.3bps
EGB SYNDICATION: Italy syndicated exchanged update
Jun-28 09:38
- Books for Oct-31 CCTeu at E10.3bln
- Guidance remains 6-month Euribor + 116bp area
- Bookrunners: SIENA, BNPP, IMI (B&D), UniCredit
Source: Bloomberg
MEF is looking to buy back:
- 2.45% Oct-23 BTP (ISIN: IT0005344335)
- 0.65% Oct-23 BTP (ISIN: IT0005215246)
- 0.25% Nov-23 BTP Italia (ISIN: IT0005312142)
- Dec-23 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005399230)
- Apr-25 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005311508)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Remain Above Support At The 20-day EMA
Jun-28 09:27
- In the equity space, a bull theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The latest move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 4365.83. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. The bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A break would open 4512.24 the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont).
- The EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A bearish cycle since Jun 16 resulted in a correction. The contract breached support at 4301.00, the Jun 8 low. This level represented a key short-term support and an extension lower would expose 4241.00, the May 31 low and an important medium-term support point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4438.00, the Jun 16 high.
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