EU-UK: ERG Chair-Stormont Brake Practically Useless; Meet Tmrw To Reach Decision
Christopher Hope at The Daily Telegraph: "ERG chairman Mark Francois MP: "The Stormont Brake is practically useless and the framework itself has no exit." Brexiteer Tories are now set to vote against the Windsor Framework tomorrow. Will Rishi Sunak need Labour votes to get it through?"
- Francois states that the group has not yet finalised its decision on how to vote on the matter, with a meeting scheduled tomorrow at 1030GMT to make the final call on whether to vote for, oppose, or abstain on vote related to the 'Stormont brake'
- The issue of whether PM Rishi Sunak will need Labour support to pass the Windsor Framework is largely a moot point. Even if the hard-line Brexiteer European Research Group votes against the deal, a more substantial number of Conservative backbenchers are seen as likely to vote in favour. The ERG's political power has waned significantly in recent years, with the group seen as around 30-strong at present. The gov't holds a 70-seat working majority, meaning that it could afford to lose 35 votes before it began to rely on Labour votes to get the statutory instrument approved.
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USDCAD TECHS: Building Base for Recovery
- RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 1.3537 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 1.3500 @ 16:25 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 1.3275/3262 Low Feb 14 / 2
- SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing
USDCAD traded higher again Friday, hitting the week’s best levels at 1.3537. This defies the view that the recent bounce was corrective, as the pair builds a base for further gains. The bull trigger is still someway off at 1.3705, but a weekly close above the 1.3500 would prove constructive. A break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late 10Y Sale
- -8,000 TYH3 112-00.5, sell through 112-01.5 post-time bid at 1527:48ET, 112-00.5 last (+4)
AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Nears Support
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6855 @ 16:24 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 0.6812 Low Feb 16
- SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
- SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
AUDUSD printed a lower low early Friday, putting prices through first support at 0.6856 to expose 0.6781. The broader uptrend remains intact for now, and the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
