TURKEY: Erdogan Says Turkey in Talks With Countries on Rare Earths
- Turkey is in talks with “expert institutions of countries that have the technological memory” about its rare earth deposits, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday afternoon, as per Bloomberg. He noted that Turkey discovered 694m tons of resources in Eskisehir, including barite and fluorspar, and that the area is the world’s second-largest rare earths area that includes 10 rare earth minerals.
- Turkey's home sales rose 6.9% y/y in September versus +6.8% in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Total home sales were 150,657 – the highest since December 2024 – while foreign nationals' purchases fell 7.7% y/y.
- Meanwhile, Turkey's house price index rose 32.2% y/y in September, according to central bank data, rising 1.7% on a month-on-month basis.
- Central government budget data and weekly capital flows data are both set for release later today. Inflation expectations data for October are due tomorrow morning.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: $43.272 - 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $43.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $42.776 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $42.712 @ 8:10 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: $40.432 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $38.899 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher Friday and this delivered a fresh cycle high. The extension higher this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $40.432, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: BTP/Bund spread targets the August low
- The BTP seems to be leading the small few ticks gain, the contract has been bought in 2k, and the lower volumes help move the needle on lower order size.
- Nonetheless, the BTP/Bund spread is looking at breaking through the 76.74bps level, this was the August low and the lowest printed level since 26/03/10.
- As noted back in July, a break below the 75bps level will highlight 70bps next, but more importantly, the next big support resides at 65.37bps, the 2009 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Strong Sell-Off
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3810 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3764 @ 08:05 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 1.3760/27 Low Sep 5 / Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A sharp sell-off in USDCAD on Monday resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
