ENERGY: ENI Raises 2025 Output Guidance
Oct-24 12:21
Italy’s Eni has raised its full-year oil and gas production guidance following a strong Q3, which saw output rise by 6% year on year to 1.76 m boe/d, Argus reported.
- The company now expects 2025 production to average 1.71–1.72 m boe/d, slightly above its previous forecast, with Q4 volumes projected at around 1.8 m boe/d.
- Eni credited the growth to a series of accelerated and smooth project start-ups and ramp-ups, particularly across new developments in Congo (Brazzaville), the UAE, Qatar and Libya.
- Norway’s Var Energi hit 400,000 boe/d one quarter early thanks to the Johan Castberg and Balder X projects.
- Further growth is expected as phase two of the Congo LNG project starts up by year-end, lifting capacity to 3m mtpa. Eni also confirmed plans to complete its 3.6m mtpa Coral North FLNG project offshore Mozambique within three years.
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FOREX: GBPUSD Probing Trendline Support
Sep-24 12:20
- The dollar’s supportive tone continues to dominate currency markets on Wednesday, as markets digest the latest U.S. & Russia comments surrounding Ukraine. GBPUSD has reverted lower in sympathy, currently probing initial trendline support (drawn from the Aug 01 low) at 1.3458. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat and target a move towards key support which resides at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low.
- As a reminder, flash PMIs for September disappointed expectations on Tuesday, adding to the building negative sentiment following last week’s public sector net borrowing data and associated concerns around the upcoming budget.
- Goldman Sachs believe vulnerabilities in the UK labour market, the need for further fiscal consolidations, global cyclical risks and a challenging structural valuation picture still point to a gradual drift higher in EUR/GBP from here.
- The latest recovery for the cross paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
BONDS: EGB Weakness & Large Corporate Issuance Weigh
Sep-24 12:16
The previously flagged block seller in BTP futures factors into some weakness in wider core global FI markets in recent trade.
- It comes after the latest political headwinds in France, in the form fresh trade union action on October 2, reaffirmed the difficulties that PM Lecornu continues to face. The French news resulted in some EGB/Bund widening before the Italian flow crossed.
- Elsewhere, we have noted that the latest headline flow surrounding the Italian working age could put pressure on public finances and worsen Italy’s existing demographic problems (see our recent run of BTP bullets for more colour there).
- Headlines surrounding Oracle’s ~$15bn 7-part issuance probably a factor as well.
- 10-Year BTP/Bund spread now out to ~82bp on the day, after BTP bulls failed to force the spread through ’10 lows at ~76bp in recent weeks (spread ~2bp wider on the session). 10-Year OAT/Bunds ~0.5bp above that level.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bound Roundup: Oracle Returns w/ 7Pt Issuance
Sep-24 12:14
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/24 $Benchmark Oracle 7pt: 5Y +105a, 5Y SOFR, 7Y +120a, 10Y +135a, 20Y +145a, 30Y +155a, 40Y +165a (note: Oracle issued $7.75B over six tranches on January 30: $1.5B +3Y +57, $500M +3Y SOFR+76, $1.25B 7Y +87, $1.75B +10Y +97, $1.75B +30Y +122, $1B +40Y +135)
- 09/24 $3.65B NRG Energy 8.25NC3, 10.25NC5
- 09/24 $1.5B CDP 5Y +68
- 09/24 $Benchmark Nissan Motor Acceptance 3Y 6%a, 5Y 6.5%a
- $16.2B Priced Tuesday, $37B/wk
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