US STOCKS: Energy Stocks Excluded From Broad Post-Ceasefire Rally

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal government posted a $308B deficit in February, about the same as the same month of the prior year ($1B more than Feb 2025). 

• That brings the cumulative deficit through the first 5 months of the 2026 fiscal year to just over $1T - compared with $1.15T the prior year and $828B in FY 2024 (around a $142B difference).
• And when adjusting for calendar effects, the current year's deficit would have been $919B, $144B lower than the prior year's.
• Revenues are up $206B (11%) vs outlays up $64B (2%) vs the prior year, when adjusting for timing shifts.
• Income/payroll taxes were up 8% but the absolute $132B increase was not significantly more than the $109B increase in customs duties, including tariffs (which helped pay for a $33B reduction in corporate income taxes).
• Outlays continued to be dominated by entitlement spending, with a $104B rose in Social SecurityMedicare/Medicaid (and a net negative $43B across the rest of the government).
• We await the official numbers from Treasury which are pencilled in to be released Wednesday.

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.23 High Jan 23
• RES 1: 158.90 Intraday high
• PRICE: 158.60 @ 15:56 GMT Mar 9 
• SUP 1: 155.78/154.00 50-day EMA / Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 152.67 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
• SUP 3: 152.10 Low Jan 27 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25

The current bull cycle in USDJPY remains intact and today’s bullish start to the week reinforces current conditions. Price remains above the 50-day EMA that was recently breached. That break highlights a stronger reversal. Note too that resistance at 157.76, the Feb 9 high, has been cleared. The clear breach of this level opens 159.45, the Jan 14 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Initial firm support lies at 155.78, the 50-day EMA.

• Knee jerk reactions across the board after Pres Trump said the Iran war "could be over soon" during phone in interview.
• TYM6 currently +3 at 112-17 vs. 112-18 high.
• Cross asset update: Bbg US$ retreats: BBDXY -1.52 at 1201.82; SPX emini climbs higher: up 25.25 points (0.37%) at 6670.5.