FRANCE DATA: Employment Absorbs Activity Rate Rise In Q1; Unemployment At 7.4%
The French Q1 ILO unemployment rate was in line with consensus at 7.4%, a tenth higher than Q4’s reading. Alongside Eurostat’s LFS measure, the unemployment rate has been quite steady between 7.0-7.5% since the start of 2024. Although the activity/employment rates showed encouraging developments in Q1, survey-based data suggests employment prospects ahead are weak. This may filter into higher unemployment rate readings in the coming quarters.
- The activity rate reached a sample high (since Q1 1975) of 75.1% in Q1 (vs 74.6% prior), driven by all age categories.
- Most of the increase in activity was absorbed by employment, with the employment rate rising to 69.5% (vs 69.1% prior).
- This increase in employment only partially filtered into hours worked though, with Q1 hours worked rising 0.3% Q/Q to 31.2 hours per wee. INSEE notes that “Since mid-2022, the number of hours worked has stabilised at a level similar to that before the health crisis (31.3 hours in Q4 2019).”
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USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4237 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14
- PRICE: 1.3931 @ 08:02 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 1.3829/22 Low Apr 14 / Low Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has bounced off recent lows but a bearish theme remains intact for now. Recent fresh trend lows marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4028, the Apr 3 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6381/83 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 15
- PRICE: 0.6349 @ 07:58 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 0.6243 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following recent gains. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6243, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take the UK CPI into account:
- Range 91.81/92.14.
