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BONDS: Europe Pi: German Contracts Fading Previous Long Lean (1/2)
From our Europe Pi update out earlier (PDF is Here)
- GERMANY: German contracts are fading some of the long lean seen in April. Schatz remains "very long" for now. Bobl however has left long territory and is now flat. Bund and Buxl each remain in flat positioning. Shorts were set in Buxl in the past week, with longs set in Schatz, Bobl and Bund.
- OAT: OAT remains in "flat" structural positioning, where it has been for all of May after a spell in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains "very long" into the roll, compared with "flat" where it spent most of the prior 7 months. The latest week saw some some shorts set.
- BTP: BTP remains in its typical "long" territory. Trade indicative of short covering was seen in the most recent week.
GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3469 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3435 @ 15:58 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 1.3282 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3140/37 Lows May 12 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11
GBPUSD traded sharply higher on the back of the UK CPI print, and saw further support from USD weakness into the close. This put prices briefly through key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for an extension towards 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection point. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key support to watch is 1.3137, the 50-day EMA.
EQUITIES: Large Program Selling As Equities Pull Back
S&P drops 1.1% in the last 15 minutes, with no clear headline catalyst (higher long-end Treasury yields are seen weighing on risk appetite). However, we saw the biggest (apparent) selling program in equities since April 10 going through in the last few minutes, with as many as 1,891 names sold at 1:17pm - see chart:
