BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform On Renewed Fiscal Concerns

Sep-19 18:28

European curves bear steepened lightly Friday.

  • Gilts underperformed, with the latest UK public sector borrowing figures showing further fiscal deterioration and weighing on the long-end.
  • Elsewhere, the calendar was relatively light to conclude a busy week. In dovish-leaning data: German PPI came in below consensus, while French employment expectations weakening.
  • With no impactful US data in the European afternoon, German and UK yields closed at/near both session and weekly highs.
  • The UK and German curves both bear steepened on the day. Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads tightened around 1bp.
  • The week as a whole saw light twist steepening in the UK curve (2Y -0.2bp, 10Y +4.4bp), with the German curve bear steepening (2Y +0.5bp, 10Y +3.3bp).
  • Next week's European calendar is a little lighter, and headlined by September flash PMIs. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 2.023%, 5-Yr is up 2bps at 2.326%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.748%, and 30-Yr is up 2.8bps at 3.337%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.1bps at 3.982%, 5-Yr is up 2.9bps at 4.132%, 10-Yr is up 3.9bps at 4.715%, and 30-Yr is up 5.2bps at 5.559%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 1.2bps at 78.5bps / Spanish down 1.2bps at 54.8bps

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Post-July FOMC Minutes React Update: Support Cools

Aug-20 18:15

Slightly hawkish minutes (pre-NFP) sees support in Tsys gradually cooling.

  • Tsy Sep 10Y contract trades at 111-28 (+3.5) vs. 112-00.5 high, 10Y yield rises to 4.2887%.
  • Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
  • Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.100 at 54.510, 5s30s +.806 at 109.048.

US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: 30Y Ultra-Bond Funded Skew Play

Aug-20 18:09
  • -5,000 WNU5 117.5 puts 30 vs. 117-16/0.50%
  • vs. +5,000 WNV5 116/119 put over risk reversal, 10 net vs. 117-08/0.75% at 1355:39ET

US TSYS: Post-July FOMC Minutes React

Aug-20 18:03
  • Still comfortably bid, Treasuries pare gains slightly after the July FOMC minutes showed almost all wanted to keep rates steady.
  • Tsy Sep 10Y contract trades at 111-29.5 vs. 112-00.5 high, 10Y yield taps 4.2829%.
  • Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
  • Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.489 at 54.121, 5s30s +.472 at 108.714.