BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Marginally Underperform Bunds
Bunds outperformed Gilts Thursday.
- After a flat start, yields started to descend in mid-morning London trade, with the implications of the US government shutdown still being digested.
- There was a sharp rise in yields in early afternoon however, with no discernable trigger (some cited US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicating an imminent "breakthrough" in relations with China).
- However the move faded as equities turned lower, leading core yields to close near their session lows (in the case of Bund) or in the middle of the daily range (Gilt).
- UK fiscal woes remained a background theme, with an FT report has reaffirmed existing estimates surrounding the fiscal "black hole" (~GBP30bln).
- In data, the UK DMP survey has "got something for both the more dovish and more hawkish members", as MNI's Macro team wrote, so didn't change the BOE outlook. Also, Swiss CPI inflation printed unchanged and marginally below consensus at 0.2% Y/Y in September.
- The German curve bull flattened on the day, with Gilts bear steepening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened slightly.
- Friday's calendar includes final Services/Composite PMIs (the only reading, in Italy and Spain's case), along with French industrial production and Italian fiscal data. There are multiple central bank speakers scheduled including ECB's Lagarde and BOE's Bailey.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.3bps at 2.01%, 5-Yr is down 0.4bps at 2.297%, 10-Yr is down 1.4bps at 2.699%, and 30-Yr is down 2.4bps at 3.274%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.9bps at 3.984%, 5-Yr is up 2bps at 4.137%, 10-Yr is up 1.4bps at 4.71%, and 30-Yr is up 0.6bps at 5.517%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.7bps at 82bps / French OAT up 0.5bps at 82.2bps
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US: President Trump To Make 'Space HQ' Announcement Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to appear in the Oval Office to announce that US Space Command will be relocated from Colorado to Alabama, reversing a decision from former President Joe Biden not to move the command. LIVESTREAM
- Politico notes: "The decision ends a bitter yearslong turf war between Alabama and Colorado leaders over the best home for the unit. Each side argued the other benefited from politically motivated decisions by either Trump or Biden to reward states that voted for them."
- The Oval Office announcement is Trump's first public appearance since a Cabinet meeting last Tuesday. Trump's light schedule since that meeting has fueled social media speculation over his health, despite several trips to his golf course in Virginia and a regular stream of Truth Social posts.
- The announcement is likely to be accompanied by ad hoc remarks to the press on a range of issues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner yesterday that Trump may declare a 'national housing emergency' this fall to address rising house prices – a ‘core issue’ for the Trump administration in the coming months.
- Bessent told Fox News in a separate interview that “all options are on the table” for further sanctions on Russia, after Trump’s first deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make progress on peace talks with Ukraine passed yesterday.
USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.79/149.12 Intraday high / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 148.12 @ 16:09 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY traded higher Tuesday but for now, remains inside its range. Resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat. A breach would open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in August.
EURGBP TECHS: Clears Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8709 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8708 @ 16:08 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 0.8625/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP traded higher Tuesday. This has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bearish threat.
