BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Curves Seal Bear Steepening For The Week

• The BLS has announced that its November jobs report will be rescheduled for December 16, coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting.
• It won’t publish an October report either, with the establishment survey added to the November publication.
• "BLS will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data from the Current Population Survey could not be collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations. The household survey data is not able to be retroactively collected. The collection period for November 2025 data will be extended for both surveys, and extra processing time will be added."
• See the latest schedule here. 

Reuters reports that the US has signalled to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine “must accept a US-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons,” two people familiar with the matter said, adding that Washington wants Kyiv to "accept the main points.”

• As noted in today's edition of the US Daily Brief, the White House likely believes that Zelenskyy will have to accept the plan on offer, drafted without Ukrainian input, due to increasing battlefield pressure and a growing domestic corruption scandal. Dasha Burns at Politico reported earlier that a senior White House official said a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could come as soon “as soon as this week” and likely by the end of the month.
• Christopher Miller at the Financial Times reports on X: “I can confirm a hasty US-Russia proposal being pushed to Ukrainians... It would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation, with people familiar telling me it’s merely the Kremlin’s maximalist demands.”
• According to Miller, the proposals include, “Ukraine army cut in half, Give up certain weapons, Give up Donbas.” He notes that sources say Zelenskyy is “displeased”.
• Yaroslav Trofimov at the Wall Street Journal reports that while Zelenskyy’s standing is “precarious" amid the corruption scandal, "the last thing Zelensky can afford politically at home is to agree to the concessions of the supposed Witkoff-Dmitriev plan, whatever they are. Being seen to buckle to Russian demands because his buddies were just caught stuffing their pockets would be political death.”

Business unit cost inflation expectations ebbed lower in the Atlanta Fed’s November survey, hitting it lowest since December, whilst realized own price setting reported its lowest for a quarterly question that started in late 2020. 

• The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey saw a small dip in year-ahead expectations for unit costs from 2.27% to 2.18% in November.
• This is the lowest since Dec 2024 having averaged 2.3% through Jul-Oct, whilst for context it peaked at 2.8% in April on tariff announcements and was a little below 2.0% pre-pandemic.  
• This month saw a return of the quarterly question on firms own price setting, with the average firm reporting a 3.1% price increase over the past year. That’s after 4.3% when asked in August and 3.9% in May, hitting its lowest since the question started in late 2020.
• Looking ahead, the average firm expected to increase prices by 3.0% over the year ahead vs 3.9% in August and 5.0% in May. That’s the lowest since mid-2021.
• The median response for price expectations held at 3.0% although has been at 3.0% for 7 of the past 10 quarterly surveys.