BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bull Steepening Week Ends With Bull Flattening
Nov-21 19:10
European curves bull flattened to end the week.
- Bunds and Gilts hit session highs in morning trade, as equities continued to lose ground overnight, fueling a safe haven bid.
- Adding to the bullish impetus for Gilts was soft UK services PMI data, though retail sales and public sector borrowing data had little impact.
- Gains faded toward the cash close, however, with equities finding a footing and oil prices ticking higher.
- For the week, the UK curve bull steepened partly on the back of softer-than-expected data (2Y yield -7.0bp, 10Y -2.8bp), with the German curve doing likewise but to a much lesser extent (2Y -2.2bp, 10Y -1.7bp).
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed on the day.
- Attention after hours will be on Moody's potential reviews of Italy and the UK, and Scope on Spain.
- Focus for next week will be on the UK Budget (MNI Preview here), while we also get country-level flash November inflation data from Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.5bps at 2.014%, 5-Yr is down 0.9bps at 2.286%, 10-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.703%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 3.339%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.7bps at 3.776%, 5-Yr is down 2.9bps at 3.961%, 10-Yr is down 4bps at 4.546%, and 30-Yr is down 5.8bps at 5.365%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.1bps at 75.6bps / Spanish down 0.3bps at 50.6bps
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Oct-22 19:07
Volumes gradually picked up Wednesday, SOFR/Treasury options remained mixed. Underlying Tsy futures modestly higher (TYZ5 113-26 +2) while SOFR futures trade mixed. Projected rate cut pricing at/near steady vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.7bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -49.1bp (-49.2bp), Jan'26 at -64.2bp (-64.2bp), Mar'26 at -78.2bp (-78.2bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +4,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25 put spds, 2.0 ref 96.375
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00/96.06/96.12 broken put condors, cab
- +5,000 2QX5 97.06/97.25 call spds, 4.0 ref 96.99
- +5,000 SFRH7 97.50/98.00 call spds, 11 ref 97.095
- -5,000 SFRH6 96.50/0QM6 96.62 put strip, 20.0
- +5,000 0QZ5 96.87/97.00 put spds 1.25 over SFRZ5 96.31 put
- +6,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors, 1.75
- +5,000 SFRH6 96.75/96.87/97.00/96.12 call condors, 1.75 ref 96.63
- +5,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.25 2x1 put spds, 0.75
- -5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors, 7.25
- +10,000 0QU6 98.00 calls, 7.5
- Block/screen, +100,000 SFRH6 96.31/96.37 put spds, 1.5 vs. 96.625 to -.64/0.06% (Mar'26 options expire March 13, 2026 - the Friday before the FOMC policy annc on March 18.
- 2,500 SFRH6 96.43/96.62/96.68 put trees
- Treasury Options:
- +20,000 FVZ5 110.5/111.5 call spds, 10
- -15,000 TYZ5 114/116 call spds, 28
- Update over -45,000 TYZ5 114 calls, 33 vs. 113-22/0.42% appr 5.03% vol
- 1,150 USF6 118/119/120 call flys
- 1,500 TYX5 112.5/113/113.25/114.25 broken call condors
- 2,500 TYZ5 118 calls, ref 113-24.5
- -1,500 TYZ5 118/121 call strips, 3 vs. 113-22/0.10%
- -3,800 TUZ5 103.5/104/104.37 broken put flys, 5 vs 104-14.87/0.18%
- +5,000 USZ5 123/125 1x2 call spds, 1 net vs. 119-08 to\ -09
- -2,000 TYX5 110.25 calls, 2.5-2.0
- -2,500 TYZ5 114 calls, 35
- 4,000 TYX5 113 puts, 1 last
- 2,500 TYX5 114/114.25 call spds vs, 6 vs. 114-00/0.14%
- 8,000 TYX5 112.5 puts, 1 ref 113-17/0.05%
- over 7,000 Wed wkly 10Y 113.5 puts, expire today
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Reversing Gains for Week
Oct-22 19:00
- Stocks indexes remain weaker late Wednesday, near session lows as gains for the week evaporate due to a confluence of factors including the ongoing US Gov shutdown, corporate earnings and China trade. Sentiment soured after Reuters reported the Trump administration is "considering broad restrictions of exports to China made with US software, citing an unnamed US official and three people briefed by US authorities."
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 367.47 points (-0.78%) at 46,560.8, S&P E-Minis down 52.5 points (-0.78%) at 6,720.5, Nasdaq down 306.2 points (-1.3%) at 22,648.52.
- Information Technology, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sector shares lead the decline: laggers in the former include Texas Instruments -7.56%, Super Micro Computer -6.18%, Microchip Technology -6.11%, ON Semiconductor -5.68% and Lam Research -4.82%.
- Industrials: Lennox International -9.70%, Quanta Services -6.56%, Generac Holdings -5.43% and Carrier Global -4.65%. Consumer Discretionary: DoorDash -3.54%, Mohawk Industries -2.15%, Deckers Outdoor -2.14% and Amazon -2.07%.
- On the positive side, Consumer Staples and Health Care related shares lead gainers in the first half: Kenvue +2.95%, Philip Morris +2.75%, McCormick & Co +2.32% and Campbell's +1.77%. After reporting better than expected earrings Intuitive Surgical surged +14.13%, Boston Scientific +4.31%, Stryker +2.48% and HCA Healthcare +2.29%.
- Earnings expected to release after the close include Southwest Airlines, Raymond James, Churchill Downs, Alcoa, Crown Castle, United Rental, Lam Research, Tesla and IBM.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme
Oct-22 19:00
- RES 4: 180.54 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.25 @ 15:36 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 175.31 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Recent strength above resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.31, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
