EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply – W/C 24 November

The Wall Street Journal reports citing sources that the ADP has stopped providing the Fed with weekly data on private payrolls and earnings. 

• Per the WSJ piece, the Fed has had access to the data since "at least 2018", and was available to the Fed with "a roughly one-week delay". The publicly-available ADP payrolls report is published monthly.
• Recall that back in August, in calling for a September rate cut with more over the following 3-6 months, Gov Waller cited weakness in "timely data that Federal Reserve staff  maintains in collaboration with the employment services firm ADP to construct  a measure of weekly payroll employment...in the weeks after the July jobs report's reference
   period, preliminary estimates from ADP show continued deterioration". That was seen as a sign that the labor market may have been worse than indicated by publicly available government statistics.
• According to the WSJ, "ADP stopped providing its data to the Fed shortly after a speech by Fed governor Christopher Waller in late August drew attention to the Fed's longstanding use of its weekly payroll data, according to a person familiar with the matter. It couldn't be learned what prompted the change. The Fed's use of ADP data wasn't a new revelation."
• Indeed, a Fed staff article on the topic from 2019 is here
• If the WSJ's report is correct, the upshot is that the Fed will more or less be relying on most of the same labor market data as the rest of us in making its decision on a cut next week, and potentially for the upcoming meetings - suggesting it's wading through even foggier territory in assessing current labor market conditions.

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key near-term resistance  
• PRICE: 1.3351 @ 15:26 BST Oct 22
• SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

GBPUSD traded lower on the softer CPI print Wednesday. The move down signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. The move down exposes key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break would be bullish.            

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 10/22 $2B #Softbank $900M 35.5NC5.5 7.625%, $1.1B 40NC10 8.25% (includes E750M 37NC7)
• 10/22 $1.5B #Alberta 10Y SOFR+81
• 10/22 $1B Rep of Korea WNG 5Y +17
• 10/22 $1B #GM Financial 3Y +78
• 10/22 $Benchmark Dominican Republic 10Y 6.0%
• 10/22 $Benchmark Pershing Square 7Y investor calls