EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Spain and France both look to hold auctions to conclude their 2024 issuance, whilst Germany has already held two auctions this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E16.1bln, down from E24.4bln last week.
- Today, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction to sell a combined E2-3bln of the on-the-run 5-year Bono and 10-year Obli: the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) and the 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35).
- Also today, France will hold its final auction of the year with only LT OATs on offer this year (it could have sold MT OATs or linkers but chose not to). All of the OATs on offer (other than the 50-year) are off-the-run issues. The auction size will be between E3-5bln – broadly in line with recent December auctions, but we had thought there might have been more sold. On offer will be the 4.00% Oct-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0010371401), the 0.50% May-40 OAT (ISIN: FR0013515806), the 1.50% May-50 OAT (ISIN: FR0013404969) and the 0.50% May-72 OAT (ISIN: FR0014001NN8).
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week see the PDF here: EZ241205.pdf
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EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.73 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 164.11/163.06 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforced current conditions. Initial support to watch lies at 164.11, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
MNI: SWISS OCT UNEMPLOYMENT +2.8% M/M, +24.5% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS OCT UNEMPLOYMENT +2.8% M/M, +24.5% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +2.6%
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C November 4, 2024
Spain, Belgium, the ESM and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands and France have already issued bills. We expect issuance to be E29.5bln in first round operations, up from E20.0bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the 6-month May 7, 2025 letras and the new 12-month Nov 5, 2025 letras.
- Also this morning, Belgium will look to issue a combined E4.4-4.8bln of the 1.5/4/6-month TCs: an indicative E2.0bln of the 1.5-month Dec 18, 2024 TC (that was launched last week for E4.002bln in a special auction to help cover the BDA's short-term cash needs), E1.4bln of the 4-month Mar 13, 2025 TC and E1.2bln of the 6-month May 8, 2025 TC.
- Finally today, the ESM will sell up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Feb 6, 2025 bills.
- Tomorrow, the EU will issue up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Feb 2, 2025 EU-bill and E2.0bln of the new 6-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
