EM CEEMEA CREDIT: EDVLN: FY24 results, supportive for credit
Endeavour Mining (EDVLN; -/BB-neg/BB)
FY24 results, supportive for credit
• London-HQ, West Africa operating gold miner Endeavour Mining posted 4Q&FY24 results, a solid read for credit.
• Production for FY24 reached 1,103koz, FY25 guidance range is indicated @ 1.110-1260koz with a longer-term 2030 target of 1,500koz (+36% growth over five year period). Reserves show +32%.
• Adj EBITDA @ USD1.3bn shows +27% YoY, posting sequential quarterly growth with growing EBITDA margin @ 58%. Strong FCF generation @ USD313mn, +178% YoY.
• Capex for FY24 stood @ USD602mn, with FY25 guidance expected to show a decrease to USD440mn. Conservative YE24 leverage @ 0.55x, inline with 0.5x target.
• Our feeds show EDVLN 5 Oct26 @ z+190bp, having charted in a 160-240bp range YTD.
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GILTS: Weaker On Canadian Tariff Reprieve
Gilts sell off at the open, adjusting to Canada’s short-term tariff reprieve that has been covered in detail elsewhere.
- Futures as low as 92.67 before a recovery to 92.80.
- The recent corrective bullish cycle in the contract extended yesterday.
- Initial support and resistance located at the 20-day EMA (92.11) and yesterday’s high (93.54), respectively.
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
- GBP STIRs still operate around pre-gilt open levels, ~80bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end.
- The DMO will come to market with GBP4.25bln of the 4.375 Mar-30 gilt this morning.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar, which will leave focus on cross-asset cues and tariff-related headlines.
- Our BoE preview will be published later today.
SILVER TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $31.737 - High Jan 30
- PRICE: $31.479 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: $29.704/28.748 - Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Silver continues to trade at its recent highs. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.704, the Jan 27 low, and $28.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4435 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 1.4398 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4290 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
USDCAD traded sharply higher Monday, before reversing lower into the close. Despite the pullback, Monday’s gains reinforce and strengthen bullish conditions. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.4398, the 20-day EMA (pierced).
