SWEDEN: Economic Activity Signals Are Improving After PMI Bounces
The Swedish composite PMI jumped to 57.1 in September, with August's reading also revised up to 54.2...
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STIR: 8bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through December
A fairly steady start for GBP STIRs after yesterday’s hawkish move.
- SFIZ5 has respected August lows, while SFIZ6 breached August lows yesterday.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~8bp of easing through year-end, we continue to believe that the November meeting is much more “live” than the ~4bp priced into the market at present.
- Ongoing fiscal worry, some questions surrounding the future of Chancellor Reeves and the potential Budget date (26 November touted) dominate locally.
- Final UK services PMI data is due today.
- Elsewhere, BoE’s Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor & Greene will appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee. We will provide a little more on that in due course.
- Note that BoE’s Breeden will speak this morning, although the setting of the address (a “money & payments” conference) may limit scope for comments on monetary policy.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-25 | 3.974 | +0.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.928 | -3.9 |
Dec-25 | 3.884 | -8.3 |
Feb-26 | 3.792 | -17.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.756 | -21.1 |
Apr-26 | 3.692 | -27.5 |
GREECE: Set To Plan Fiscal Relief Measures: Bloomberg
"*GREECE PLANS FISCAL-RELIEF MEASURES WORTH AT LEAST €1.5 BILLION" Bloomberg
"*GREEK PLAN SEES TAX CUTS FOR MIDDLE CLASS, SUPPORT FOR FAMILIES" Bloomberg
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6523.00 High Aug 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6433.50 @ 07:23 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 6371.75 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6336.02. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.
