ECB: ECB Stops Short of Signaling Future Rate Rises

Mar-16 13:24

ECB raises the benchmark policy rates by 50bps, as flagged in the MNI Preview.

The bank's statement is found here. Notably, the bank stops short of formally signalling the magnitude of future rate rises. Other highlights include:

  • Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.
  • The Governing Council is monitoring current market tensions closely and stands ready to respond as necessary
  • The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate
  • Subsequent APP pace will be determined over time.
  • Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

Feb-14 13:14
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.55%, $1.153T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.52%, $467B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.52%, $452B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

US TSYS: What to Watch: Yields Softer Ahead Jan CPI

Feb-14 13:04

US rates firmer, Tsy futures inching back near early London session highs (30YY currently 3.7523% vs. 3.7444% low), yld curves mixed in lead-up to headline CPI inflation data for Jan at 0830ET:

    • CPI MoM (0.1% rev, 0.5%); YoY 6.5%, 6.2%)
    • CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4% rev, 0.4%); YoY (5.7%, 5.5%)
    • CPI Index NSA (296.787, 298.710)
    • CPI Core Index SA (301.46 rev, 301.618)
  • SA revisions plus (known) revisions to CPI weights might muddy initial market reaction, potentially increasing volatility whilst the report is assessed.

  • With some upward monthly drivers seen coming from typically volatile categories such as used cars and airfares, watch other components for a better clue of more sustained market reaction.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers will likely add rebuttal:
    • Richmond Fed Barkin, Bbg TV at 0930ET
    • Dallas Fed Logan moderated discussion, text, Q&A, 1100ET
    • Philly Fed Harker economic outlook, text, Q&A, live streamed, 1130ET
    • NY Fed Williams keynote speech NY Bankers Assn, text, Q&A, 1405ET

GILT PAOF RESULTS: The PAOF for the 3.25% Jan-33 Gilt was not taken up

Feb-14 13:02
  • A total of GBP750mln had been available.
  • This leaves GBP6.7025bln nominal of the gilt in issue.