POWER: EC Probes €61mn ACF Award Over Bulgaria’s Renewable Energy Ccheme

• On the commodity front, the trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and another fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The metal has traded through the psychological $4400.0 handle and this opens $4500.0 next, ahead of $4536.0, the 1.500 projection of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4259.9, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
• The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a 1.764 projection of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.71, the 50- day EMA.

The Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs published a statement confirming the inheritance tax relief threshold will rise to GBP2.5mn for farmers and businesses. DEFRA: "The reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief mean that only a small number of estates with agricultural and business assets will pay additional inheritance tax." The change comes days after the publication of a report from Baroness Minette Batters, former president of the National Farmers' Union (NFU), regarding farming profitability, which stated many farmers were "bewildered and frightened" by the proposed changes. 

• As the BBC reports, "The report did not look in detail at the government's proposed changes to inheritance tax, which are set to apply to farm businesses worth more than £1 million at a rate of 20% from April 2026. But Baroness Batters said it was raised as the single biggest concern by almost everyone in the farming sector she talked to as part of the review."
• The issue had become a significant political headache for PM Sir Keir Starmer's Labour gov't. Farmers have mounted high-profile protests around the Houses of Parliament with tractors, disrupting central London and gaining significant media attention.
• The very nature of Labour's large Commons majority will also have put pressure on Starmer. Historically, the centre-left Labour Party has represented seats in urban areas, while the centre-right Conservatives have represented rural seats. However, the massive gains Labour made in the 2024 general election mean that more than 100 of its MPs represent rural areas. With many of these MPs sitting on small majorities, the loss of support among farmers and the broader rural community would imperil their (already vulnerable) seats even more.
• Opinion polling in the new year will be closely watched to see if the increased threshold does anything to win back support for Labour in rural areas. 

OI data points to short setting dominating in SOFR futures during yesterday's downtick, with only 2 instances of fairly limited net long cover seen across the front 16 contracts.

• The reds saw the biggest shift in net pack OI.