SOFR & Treasury option flow continued to revolve around low delta put structures - carry-over from Monday, underlying futures climbing (TYH6 testing resistance at 112-16), curves bull flattening (2s10s currently -1.835 at 69.447 vs. 71.504 high). Projected rate cut pricing slightly higher vs. late Monday levels (*): Mar'26 at -5.6bp (-4.7bp), Apr'26 at -11.1bp (-10.1bp), Jun'26 at -25.8bp (-24.8bp), Jul'26 at -35.1bp (-34.1bp).
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Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support.
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