EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Steadies Following Turbulent Post-GDP Price Action
EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low and the contract is trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would be seen as a healthy bull trend correction. Support to watch is 4085.4, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The breach of resistance paves the way for strength towards 4090.75, the Dec 14 high and leaves the 4100.00 handle exposed. Further out, an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support has been defined at 3949.56, the 50-day EMA. A move below the average would be seen as a bearish development.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 19.81 pts or +0.07% at 27382.56 and the TOPIX ended 4.26 pts higher or +0.22% at 1982.66.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 15.56 pts or +0.1% at 15148.35, FTSE 100 higher by 5.72 pts or +0.07% at 7766.91, CAC 40 up 10.07 pts or +0.14% at 7106.06 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 3.18 pts or +0.08% at 4177.16.
- Dow Jones mini down 43 pts or -0.13% at 33982, S&P 500 mini down 14.25 pts or -0.35% at 4061.5, NASDAQ mini down 79.25 pts or -0.65% at 12029.
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BONDS: Gilts moves today larger than 2-day moves in USTs / Bunds
- Gilts are the biggest movers this morning with the moves in 10-year gilt yields this morning larger than the 2-day moves seen in both 10-year UST and Bunds. Gilt yields are just under 10bp higher on the day while in 2-day moves 10-year Bund yields are up 9.1bp and 10-year UST yields are up 8.2bp. However, today we have actually seen Bunds move higher and lead Treasuries higher too: 10-year Bund yields are down 3.4bp on the day and 10-year UST yields down 1.3bp.
- Over 2 days curves are substantially different, however. The gilt curve is marginally flatter with 2-year gilt yields in excess of 10bp higher while 2-year UST yields are 5.5bp higher over 2-days (unch today) and Schatz yields are 2.2bp higher over 2-days (down 2.9bp today).
- There have been no real headline drivers behind today's moves - it seems to be just a pullback from the lows seen yesterday.
- Later today we will see a Greek 26-week bill auction, US 17-week bill auction, US 2-year FRN auction and US 5-year Note auction.
USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish Despite The Latest Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 1: 1.3617/3705 High Dec 26 / 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3523 @ 08:31 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 1.3484 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 1.3369 Former trendline resistance
- SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
USDCAD traded lower Tuesday and price remains below its recent highs. Despite the pullback, short-term conditions remain bullish. The recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, strengthened the bullish argument and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below the former trendline resistance - at 1.3369 - would be bearish and expose 1.3317, the Nov 24/25 low.
RATINGS: MNI Sovereign Rating Review Calendar – 2023
Click to access the indicative sovereign rating review schedule for 2023. Do note that the schedule is indicative only and ratings can be reviewed on an ad-hoc basis. The schedule may also be adjusted by the rating agencies during the year.
