EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6585.83 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6523.00 High Aug 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6452.75 @ 14:44 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 6371.75 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6336.02. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.
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US: Senate Joins House On Recess w/Out Clear Strategy For Avoiding Govt Shutdown
The Senate has joined the House on recess until Sept. 2, without agreeing on a deal to confirm dozens of pending executive branch nominees, or a broader funding strategy to avert a shutdown on October 1.
- Politico notes that before recessing, the Senate passed its first three spending bills. "In an 87-9 vote, the upper chamber passed a two-bill package that would fund the departments of Veterans Affairs and Agriculture, along with military construction and the Food and Drug Administration. A third bill “to fund Congress itself” passed, 81-15."
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) wrote a letter to GOP counterparts requesting a “Big Four” meeting this week to discuss "the government funding deadline and the health care crisis you have visited upon the American people".
- Punchbowl notes on the prospect of a shutdown: “The outlook for a government-funding deal is pretty poor right now. A shutdown or CR – or both – is a real possibility heading into the Sept. 30 deadline. Or potentially a hybrid situation where Congress passes some spending bills and then adopts a short-term CR... That would leave Washington lurching along from shutdown threat to shutdown threat throughout 2025-26.”
- According to Polymarket, the implied probability of a government shutdown remains around 40%, with bettors likely considering Democrats unwilling to allow the government to shut down.
Figure 1: Government Shutdown in 2025
Source: Polymarket
EQUITIES: Commerzbank Put Option Trades for more
Adding to the Commerzbank Option trade:
- CBK (18/06/27) 24p, bought for 4.10 in 14.25k.
This option also traded on the 30th July:
- CBK (18/06/27) 24p, bought for 4.09 and 4.15 in 42k, most of the size for 4.15.
EQUITIES: US Program buyer on the Cash Open
- Program Buyer on the Open but with just 1206 names, there were higher program trades during Friday's session.
- Cash SPX has gapped higher to trade near Friday's Opening level of 6287.28, while the SPX saw a gap down from 6339.39 to that 6287.28 level on Friday's Cash Open.
