EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 6080.75 High Feb 26
- RES 3: 6057.00 High Mar 3
- RES 2: 6000.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5993.50 High May 20
- PRICE: 5855.25 @ 14:29 BST May 22
- SUP 1: 5837.25/5709.84 High Mar 25 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5455.50 Low Apr 30
- SUP 3: 5355.25 Low Apr 24
- SUP 4: 5127.25 Low Apr 21 and a key support
A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This has strengthened the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5709.84, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 5652.57 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5528.75 High Apr 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5437.24 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4242.75 @ 14:23 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. The latest move down signals the end of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5437.24, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
SPX: 5,220.3 (+1.2%); DJIA: 38,611 (+1.2%/+441pts); NDX: 18,050.5 (+1.4%).
EUROZONE DATA: Soft Data Key To Near-term ECB Outlook; April Flash PMIs In Focus
Soft data will be key in charting the Eurozone’s economic trajectory in the coming months, with hard data significantly lagging volatile US tariff developments. That puts focus on this afternoon’s flash EC consumer confidence reading, tomorrow’s April flash PMIs and Thursday’s April German IFO survey.
- Last Thursday’s post decision Reuters sources piece noted that “some ECB policymakers see a high chance of a further interest rate cut in June” (in line with current market pricing), while others who are thus far undecided “want to see how soft indicators of economic activity and other variables such as energy prices pan out before making any predictions about their next meeting”.
- Within the PMIs, the new export orders component will be closely watched. Goldman Sachs have written that “statistical analysis implies that a 1pt pullback in new export orders predicts a hit to year-over-year export growth in most countries (3⁄4pp on average), suggesting that a survey pullback will subsequently show up in actual export data”.
- Analysts expect the Eurozone-wide composite PMI (due 0900BST/1000CET tomorrow) at 50.2 in April, which would fully unwind March’s 0.7pp bounce to 50.9. Services is seen at 50.5 (vs 51.0 prior) and manufacturing at 47.4 (vs 48.6 prior).
- Similar dynamics are expected in the French (due 0815BST) and German (0830BST) readings.
