EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 5864.43 200-dma
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 1: 5724.75 High May 2
- PRICE: 5638.75 @ 14:27 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 5536.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5622.98. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. First support to watch is 5536.59, the 20-day EMA.
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CROSS ASSET: Fresh Comments From Trump See Bonds Off Lows
Fresh comments from U.S. President Trump apply some more weight to equities and allow bonds tot ick away from lows.
- Trump says "Countries from all over the World are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate! They have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other “things.” It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!!"
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 5664.68 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 5435.00 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 1: 5040.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4974.50 @ 14:13 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 4832.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- 7SUP 4: 4519.84 61.8% retracement of the Oc ‘22 - Feb ‘25 bull cycle
S&P E-Minis continues to trade in a volatile manner. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows, strengthens current conditions. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 4800.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
STIR: SOFR Option Update
Flurry of SOFR call selling and position rolling as underlying futures pare/reverse overnight gains:
- -7,500 SFRZ6 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-39.0
- -10,000 SFRH7 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-38 ref 96.875
- -7,000 0QU5 97.00/98.00 call spds, 23.5 ref 96.935
- +7,500 0QN5 96.75/97.25/97.75 call flys vs 0QU5 97.25/97.75 call spds, 2.75 Sep over
