EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Reversal Lower Exposes Key Support

Feb-13 15:08
  • RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing    
  • RES 3: 7055.73 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
  • RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger  
  • RES 1: 6922.20/7011.50 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 
  • PRICE: 6834.25 @ 14:57 GMT Feb 13
  • SUP 1: 6751.50 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support
  • SUP 2: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 ‘25 
  • SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
  • SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support   

A sharp sell-off yesterday in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat with key resistance at 7043.00 intact, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance to watch is at 6922.20, the 50-day EMA.

Historical bullets

US: No IEEPA Tariffs Ruling Yet, SCOTUS Developments in Focus

Jan-14 15:07

Supreme Court's first opinion of the day is "Barrett vs United States", ie not tariffs, Scotusblog reports.

  • Because there are likely so many Supreme Court opinions (possibly 3-4) out today, and not in any particular order as far as we know, we will only know what the other ones are as they come out, so stay tuned.
  • The time frame today depends on how many opinions, and how long the opinions are as the justices read out the summaries. Could be very short (all done in next 15 minutes), or an hour or longer. it's unknown.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE: /EQUITIES: Asian AI-Related Goods Exports Robust In Dec25

Jan-14 15:06

China, Taiwan and South Korea’s December trade data suggests demand for AI-related goods remained robust to end 2025. Selected sub-components for which timely data is available point to an acceleration of South Korean and Chinese exports in Q4, while Taiwanese exports of various integrated circuit products (largely attributable to TSMC) have been robust throughout the year.

  • Annual growth rates aren’t at historic highs for any of the three exporters, but 48% Y/Y (China), 43% (South Korea) and 33% (Taiwan) rates nonetheless underscore the demand for AI investment inputs seen through last year.
  • A key focus this year will be on the sustainability of AI and AI-adjacent companies' valuations, with increasing scrutiny on the profitability of substantial capex investments.
  • In this light, Magnificent Seven earnings will be in focus towards the end of this month. See here for MNI’s full earnings schedule
  • For now though, confidence in the AI theme persists. Earlier this week, Alphabet surpassed a $4trln market cap on news of a multi-year AI technology deal with Apple. 
image

MNI: US OCT BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.3%; SALES -0.2%

Jan-14 15:00
  • MNI: US OCT BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.3%; SALES -0.2%
  • US OCT RETAIL INVENTORIES +0.6%