EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Extends Pullback From Tuesday's High
The medium-term trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and recent short-term weakness - for now - appears corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5296.44. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and expose 5229.00, the Mar 11 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, the bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. S&P E-Minis have pulled back from Tuesday’s high. The trend condition is bearish and gains since Mar 13 are considered corrective. However, note that the 20-day EMA has recently been breached. A resumption of gains would open 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 679.64 pts or -1.8% at 37120.33 and the TOPIX ended 58.22 pts lower or -2.07% at 2757.25.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 22.442 pts or -0.67% at 3351.307 and the HANG SENG ended 152.2 pts lower or -0.65% at 23426.6.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 156.83 pts or -0.69% at 22527.52, FTSE 100 lower by 2.83 pts or -0.03% at 8668.93, CAC 40 down 43.47 pts or -0.54% at 7955.72 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 27.79 pts or -0.52% at 5353.62.
- Dow Jones mini down 102 pts or -0.24% at 42510, S&P 500 mini down 18.75 pts or -0.33% at 5720.75, NASDAQ mini down 107.5 pts or -0.54% at 19884.25.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb26 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0400(E1.1bln), $1.0420-35(E2.6bln), $1.0440-50(E2.8bln), $1.0460-75(E1.6bln), $1.0495-00(E1.6bln), $1.0510-30(E5.0bln), $1.0550(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.00($956mln), Y150.00($833mln), Y150.20-25($780mln), Y151.00($1.4bln), Y151.95($1.0bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y155.00(E927mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2675(Gbp619mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6400(A$817mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3500($1.2bln), C$1.4300($784mln), C$1.4390-00($1.4bln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.2bln)
CROSS ASSET: A $3.3k bounce in Bitcoin
- Bitcoin has managed to bounce back above that 50% retracement noted Yesterday at $88,027.59, this is the retracement post the US Election rally.
- Bitcoin lost a whopping ~10.55k in just the last two sessions, and after bouncing some ~3.3k from Yesterday's low, it is drifting back down to that $88,027.59 level.
- Next supports are still seen at 85,133.12, followed by 83,021.19, 61.8% retracement of the US Election Rally.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
GILTS: Flat Start, Global Cues Still Eyed
Gilts little changed with Bunds and Tsys off lows ahead of the UK open.
- Core global FI came under pressure in Asia on the back of increased odds of U.S. tax cuts.
- M5 futures -6 at 93.17, narrow 93.12-24 range to start.
- Initial resistance at the Feb 13 high (93.39), with the bullish technical theme intact in the contract.
- Roll completion stands at ~85% ahead of tomorrow’s first notice for H5.
- Yields little changed to 1bp lower across the curve.
- Little of note on the UK data calendar today,
- BoE dove Dhingra will speak on “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy” from 16:30 GMT, don’t expect a change in tone after she reaffirmed her dovish stance earlier in the week (pushing back against the idea of gradual cuts given her view on consumption).
