NBP: Dovish Signalling Has Intensified Ahead Of Next Week's Rate Meeting (1/2)
May-01 09:42
Below we summarise the latest comments from all MPC members as the central bank enters the blackout period ahead of next week's monetary policy decision. The last policymaker to comment on monetary policy was Ludwik Kotecki, who gave an interview to Business Insider yesterday, before its publication this morning.
- By our count, seven out of 10 MPC members explicitly guided towards a rate cut in May. In addition, Ireneusz Dabrowski said that July would be a safe moment to cut rates, but it might happen sooner. Furthermore, Iwona Duda's on-hold guidance comes from an interview published on March 24, before the Governor changed his narrative last month.
Table 1. Most recent comments on monetary policy from Polish MPC members.
| Member | Term Started | Term Ends | Appointed By | Latest Comments | Expected Timing Of Rate Cuts |
| Adam Glapiński | 2022 | 2028 | Sejm/President | Sees room for cuts, potential from May, if dovish data repeats. The initial cut could be by 50bp. Terminal rate could be 3.50% in 2026. | May 2025 |
| Ireneusz Dąbrowski | 2022 | 2028 | President | “The decision to cut rates may come sooner, but in my opinion July is a very safe moment. Any earlier carries a certain risk, but perhaps the Council will decide to do so and there will be a proposal on this matter.” | July 2025 (perhaps sooner) |
| Iwona Duda | 2022 | 2028 | Sejm | “Only the July projection can provide arguments decisive for the prospects of interest rate cuts, both in terms of timing and scale.” | July 2025 |
| Wiesław Janczyk | 2022 | 2028 | Sejm | “There is a good chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Council meetings (...) Waiting until the July projection may not be necessary.” | May 2025 |
| Cezary Kochalski | 2019 | 2025 | President | Would consider backing a 50bp rate cut in May. | May 2025 |
| Ludwik Kotecki | 2022 | 2028 | Senate | “I think [a rate cut in May] is a foregone conclusion. We had the third or fourth consecutive [downside] inflation surprise. The reading is below expectations. It seems that the MPC was right to signal May rate cuts back in April. We were waiting for the data for March. And it really seems that it's time.” | May 2025 |
| Przemysław Litwiniuk | 2022 | 2028 | Senate | “Data from the economy confirm that a serious consideration of lowering interest rates at the upcoming May meeting is justified. The question is about the magnitude of this cut, whether it will be 25bp or 50bp, and the character of this cut, whether it will be a cycle or an adjustment.” | May 2025 |
| Gabriela Masłowska | 2022 | 2028 | Sejm | “It can’t be ruled out that interest rates will be cut in May. The CPI reading in April and especially the July projection will be crucial for the decision to cut interest rates in the coming months.” | May 2025 |
| Joanna Tyrowicz | 2022 | 2028 | Senate | 'If recent macro data will keep repeating, the time may come to stabilise interest rates at the current levels." | - |
| Henryk Wnorowski | 2022 | 2028 | President | “I believe that much is already clear, but April 30 and the flash reading of April CPI will be key for the MPC’s May meeting. I am not ruling out anything, considering that a 50bp interest-rate cut in May has been floated in the comments of many of my colleagues. I never mentioned a 50bp cut, but it doesn’t mean that it can’t happen.” | May 2025 |
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