US: Despite Favourable Political Environment, Democrats Still Long To Win Senate

• Bloomberg reports (link) that the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals has rejected the Trump administration’s request to delay the next steps in the fight over tariff refunds, which are broadly estimated to be in the region of $175bn.
• Trump administration had pushed for a delay as much as four months but the Federal Circuit has instead issued it immediately, sending the case back to the US Court of International Trade.
• Context from Trump administration officials on the refund process after the original SCOTUS decision: Bessent: "My sense is that could be dragged out for weeks, months, years, so we'll see what happens there. [...] I got a feeling the American people won't see it." USTR's Greer: "So it's a matter for the courts. They created the situation, and we'll follow whatever they say to do."
• Several major companies including FedEx, Costco and Kohl’s have recently sued the Trump administration for refunds, with FedEx pledging on Friday that any refunds it receives will be distributed “to the shippers and consumers who originally bore those charges”. 

• RES 4: 114-19+ 2.236 projection of the Feb 19 - 23 - 25 price swing 
• RES 3: 114-14   2.000 projection of the Feb 19 - 23 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 114-08+ 1.764 projection of the Feb 19 - 23 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 114-06   Intraday high
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-01+ @ 17:17 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 113-00+ Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 112-24   20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 112-22   Low Feb 20
• SUP 4: 111-28   Low Feb 11

The early rally in Treasury prices reversed into the Monday close, with broad bond weakness defining the reaction to the Iran strikes. Prices edged through last week’s lows into the London close, with support at 112-24 now within range. This helps alleviate the overbought condition and a pullback from here would allow this positioning to unwind. Resistance at 113-11+, the Feb 17 high and a short-term bull trigger, has been breached. This has been followed by a move above 113-18, the Nov 25 ‘25 high, signalling scope for 114-08+ next, a Fibonacci projection. 

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 03/03   --    Wards Total Vehicle Sales
• 03/03 0955 NY Fed Williams moderated discussion
• 03/03 1130 US Tsy $90B 6W bill auction
• 03/03 1155 MN Fed Kashkari Bbg investment conf
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI