FOREX: December EURUSD Lows Continue to Hold Post ECB Presser & US data
Dec-12 16:28
- The Euro is currently just above pre-ECB announcement levels ~1.0490, with a 1.0520/1.0464 range containing the two-way swings post US data and ECB presser. Support at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low, continues to hold for now and we pointed out that notable option expiries up to Monday between 1.0500-1.0600 might limit the single currency downside.
- However, given a bearish trend structure is in place, a daily close below this level would signal scope for a move to 1.0335, which remains the notable bear trigger. Any recovery would keep attention on 20-day EMA resistance, currently intersecting at 1.0566.
- Relative weakness for sterling has prompted EURGBP to rise 0.35% on the session, briefly reaching 0.8273 post ECB. Attention is on key support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range. A clear breach of this support would represent a major breakout. The cross had been approaching oversold territory, and today’s recovery is considered corrective at this juncture.
- As highlighted, the Reuters piece adds little value given Lagarde already disclosed in the press conference that there were some discussions of a 50bp cut amongst the GC. Focus now swiftly back on European politics, with Macron potentially expected to announce a prime minister this evening and then the German no confidence vote on Monday.
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FOREX: GBP Cements Place as Tuesday's Worst Performer
Nov-12 16:17
GBP cementing its position as the poorest performer in G10 today, with another pullback low at 1.2755 in recent trade - this extends the losses on the break of the 200-dma earlier this morning, which had held as solid support back in August.
- The greenback remains the key catalyst here, as markets shrugged off the higher-than-expected wages numbers out ahead of the UK open, and while BoE's Pill made no particularly new comments on monetary policy (again using the word 'gradual'), he referenced economic pressures from the last Budget as a "short-term" demand shock - potentially playing down any hard impact on the longer-term neutral rate.
- Short-term support at 1.2799 has given way, but 1.2665 is seen as a more significant level, marking the reversal low from August. EUR/GBP's ability to continue straddling 0.83 could also be pressuring GBP/USD here.
- Bailey's appearance at Mansion House this week provides the key risk event, who speaks alongside Chancellor Reeves - however it would be unusual for him to mark a notably different tone on monetary policy. Read more here: https://marketnews.com/boe-upcoming-mpc-speakers-1-2
US TSYS: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.384 BLN FROM $81.000 BLN TOTAL
Nov-12 16:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.384 BLN FROM $81.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSYS: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.815 BLN FROM $72.000 BLN TOTAL
Nov-12 16:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.815 BLN FROM $72.000 BLN TOTAL
