RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 165.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.84 @ 07:15 GMT May 6
• SUP 1: 162.38 Intraday low     
• SUP 2: 161.69 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22   
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9 

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. The recent print above key resistance at 164.19, the Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.69, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull cycle.

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 120.10@ Close May 5 
• SUP 1: 119.60/119.33 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

BTP futures remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.33, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition. 

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $64.46/67.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $59.43 @ 06:44 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.38. Initial resistance is at $64.46, the 20-day EMA.