OIL OPTIONS: Crude Options Swtich Back to Call Volatility Bias
Dec-13 09:25
The near term crude options have switched back to a skew in favour of the calls with increased upside risk from potential US sanctions on Russian and Iran, while encouraging signs of Gaza ceasefire are tempered by elevated Iran risk.
- China stimulus measures could also provide some support for global demand next year with IEA yesterday revising demand up to 1.1mb/d although a surplus is still expected.
- The Brent second month call-put implied volatility spread has rebounded to +1.85% from around -2% earlier this week. The WTI second month skew has risen from about -2.8% to +0.5%.
- Brent second month implied volatility has also edge back up from the lowest since July of 24% on Dec. 10 to 26.6%. WTI second month implied volatility rose from 25.6% to 27.7%.
- Call option traded volumes also increased back above put volumes but with futures and options volumes both holding near normal levels.
- Brent FEB 25 up 0.2% at 73.56$/bbl
- WTI JAN 25 up 0.3% at 70.2$/bbl
Source: Bloomberg
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US TSY OPTIONS: Some standout early Options
Nov-13 09:08
Some standout early size option in the US, latest trade:
- TYG5 106.50p, sold at '19 in 20k.
Earlier this morning saw:
- TYF5 112.50c, bought for '11 in 15k.
- TYG5 108.50/107.50, bought for 20 in 19.2k.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large 10yr put spread
Nov-13 08:58
TYG5 108.50/107.50, bought for 20 in 19.2k.
JPY: USD/JPY Clears Tuesday High With Little Difficulty
Nov-13 08:56
USD/JPY has cleared yesterday's highs with little difficulty, putting price at the best levels since late July. US rates markets remain the key trigger here, with the 2yr US yield well within range of 4.4076%, the 200-dma.
- BoJ policy and the FX approach of the Japanese authorities becomes key here, with markets re-entering levels at which the Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets via JPY buying, however given the sharp gyrations in short-end US rates markets, it's unlikely recent price action meets the criteria for intervention - although comments from the Japanese finance minister last week upgraded their FX language: adding the word "extremely" to the phrasing "We are watching developments [...] with an extremely high sense of urgency".
- MNI's interview with former BoJ Chief Econ last week flagged that USD/JPY above Y155 and toward Y160 could prompt a rate hike at the December meeting, however a January hike is, for now, the more likely scenario.
- Levels of note on further strength include Y156.67, the 76.4% retracement for the downleg posted off the July high.
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