OIL: Large EIA-Reported US Crude Drawdown & Strong Fuel Demand Drives Oil Up
Oil prices are moderately higher today after stabilising on Wednesday as the outlook for an easing of sanctions on Iran remained negative, markets monitored the efficacy of the ceasefire and the US saw another significant crude drawdown. WTI is 0.5% higher at $65.22/bbl off the intraday high of $65.38 which followed a low of $64.89. Brent is up 0.4% to $67.93/bbl after reaching $68.11. Both benchmarks remain below initial resistance levels but are still close to 10% higher in June. The USD index is down 0.2%.
- The fifth consecutive weekly US crude drawdown has helped to support prices. Inventories fell 5.84mn barrels last week after 11.47mn bringing the five week total to 28.05mn. The EIA also reported that gasoline demand rose to its highest since end-2021 suggesting a very good start to the “driving season”.
- With risks to oil supplies from the Middle East abating, a further OPEC output increase in August could put downward pressure on crude. The group meets on July 6 to decide.
- Trade negotiations are also likely to be a focus with the July 8 deadline approaching. Signs of a stalemate could also push oil down as it fears weaker global energy demand, whereas deals with major US trading partners are likely to buoy it.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin, Daly, Hammack, Barr and Kashkari speak as well as ECB President Lagarde and Board members Schnabel and de Guindos, and BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Breeden. The European Council summit is also held.
- In terms of data, US advance May trade, inventories, durable goods orders, Chicago Fed index, June Kansas Fed manufacturing, Q1 final GDP and jobless claims print. There is also German GfK July consumer confidence.
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GOLD: Bullion Under Pressure As Trade Talks Continue
Gold prices are slightly lower today down 0.3% to $3334.00 off the intraday low of $3331.99. Flight-to-quality flows continue to recede as trade negotiations continue with the current focus on US-EU.
- With the US appearing more open to reaching trade deals ahead of its July deadline, Bloomberg estimates that gold-backed ETFs have seen five consecutive weeks of outflows. However, the market remains nervous about the US’ fiscal position and any perception of a further deterioration would be supportive for bullion.
- Equities are mixed with the Hang Seng down 0.2% but S&P e-mini up 0.9% and ASX +0.3%. US 10yr yields are lower. Oil prices are down with WTI -0.3% to $61.34/bbl. Copper is 0.9% lower and iron ore has tested $95.80/t. Silver is down 0.7% to $33.25, close to the intraday low.
- Later the Fed’s Kashkari and Barkin appear. US April durable orders, May consumer confidence & Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March US house prices, French preliminary May CPI and euro area EC May survey are released.
AUSSIE BONDS: Stronger Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Data
ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +6.0) are stronger with US tsys 2-4bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's holiday.
- Cash ACGBs are 4-6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
- The bills strip richer, with pricing +1 to +4.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in July as a 72% probability, with a cumulative 75bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
- Today, the local calendar has been light.
- The focus remains on tomorrow's April CPI, which is forecast to moderate to 2.3% y/y from 2.4%. The trimmed mean has been around 2.7% y/y for four consecutive months. There will be limited updates to the services components being the first month of the quarter.
- Some of the components of Q1 GDP are also released this week, namely construction (Wed) and private capex (Thu).
- April retail sales print on Friday and are projected to rise 0.3% m/m after increasing the same amount in March.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 March 2036 bond on Friday.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - Quiet Asian Session
The BBDXY has had a range of 1208.48 - 1210.80 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1210. “The ECB’s Gediminas Simkus says there’s a growing danger that inflation will fall short of the central bank’s 2% target due to trade friction and a stronger euro, adding there’s scope for a rate cut next month”(BBG). “Donald Trump’s erratic policies offer a “prime opportunity” to strengthen the euro’s international role as a reserve currency, letting the EU enjoy lower borrowing costs and protections from sanctions, Christine Lagarde said.”(BBG)
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1383 - 1.1407, Asia is currently trading 1.1390. EUR has had a quiet day in the Asian session. What stood out from the price action on Friday was how well the EUR held up in the face of a potential 50% increase in tariffs, and it was again the USD that took the brunt of the impact. This clearly shows the market's current outlook and leans into the growing “sell America “ theme. Dips back to 1.1200/1300 should be supported.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3557 - 1.3587, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3565. The GBP is breaking the Pivotal Weekly Resistance in the 1.3500 area, all eyes will be on how the market reacts up here as most participants return. A sustained break though would signal a potential acceleration of the trend higher.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1712 - 7.1851, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1876. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1840. Sellers should be found on a bounce back towards the 7.2200 area again. Andreas Steno Larsen on X : The elephant in the room. USDCNH needs to go to 6.80 at least. https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1926115935200440525
- Cross asset : SPX +0.89%, Gold $3340, US 10-Year 4.48%, BBDXY 1210, Crude oil $61.31
- Data/Events : Ger Gfk Consumer Confidence, France CPI, EZ Consumer Confidence
