MNI EXCLUSIVE: RBA Searching For New Research Head

• China bond futures are marginally lower today, following the injection of liquidity during the OMO.  
• The 10YR future is down -0.05 at 108.80 having bounced off the 20-day EMA of 108.84.  
• The 50-day EMA sits below at 108.73.
• The 2YR future is down -0.02 at 102.40 and remains below all major moving averages.  The nearest being the 20-day EMA of 102.46.
• The 10YR CGB is higher by +0.05bp today at 1.69%
• Industrial Profits for April were released today and continue to trend in the right direction, improving on March.   
• Next key data will be Official PMIs on the 31st.   

RBNZ-dated OIS pricing was little changed across meetings today.

• Markets continue to price in 25bps of easing for tomorrow’s meeting, with 64bps expected by November 2025.
• However, rates remain 2–19bps higher than levels observed prior to the Q1 CPI release on April 17.
• Amid firmer NZ rates and softer Australian rates—following last week’s dovish RBA pivot and rate cut—the expected year-end policy rate differential between Australia and New Zealand has narrowed by 20–25bps over the past week, currently standing at +22bps. 

Figure 1: RBNZ Official Rate Profile Vs. Expected Dec-25 Level

Source: MNI - Market News / Bloomberg

After last week’s slow week, this week has started off on a positive note with strong inflows into Taiwan and South Korea. 

• South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$135m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$3m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,470. The 5-day average is -$1m, the 20-day average is +$79m and the 100-day average of -$115m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$426m as of yesterday, with total inflows of +$1,571m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10,020. The 5-day average is +$314m, the 20-day average of +$441m and the 100-day average of -$104m.
• India: Had inflows of +$69m as of the 23rd, with total outflows of -$1,365m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$10,578m.  The 5-day average is -$273m, the 20-day average of +$175m and the 100-day average of -$119m.
• Indonesia: Had inflows of +$20m as of yesterday, with total inflows of +$128m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,797m.  The 5-day average is +$26m, the 20-day average +$12m and the 100-day average -$32m.
• Thailand: Recorded outflows of +$35m as of yesterday, inflows totaling +$100m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,652m. The 5-day average is +$20m, the 20-day average of -$4m and the 100-day average of -$17m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$15m as of yesterday, totaling -$106m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,198m. The 5-day average is -$22m, the 20-day average of +$31m and the 100-day average of -$22m.
• Philippines: Saw no flows yesterday, with net outflows of -$28m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$256m. The 5-day average is -$6m, the 20-day average of +$2m the 100-day average of -$3m.