OIL: Crude Lower As Risk Sentiment Stabilises & Waits For November Reports
Oil prices are slightly lower in Tuesday’s APAC session following moderate gains yesterday as risk sentiment stabilised. WTI is down 0.3% to $59.96/bbl but it has spent much of the session below $60. It made a high of $60.12 before moderating again. Brent is 0.2% lower at $63.95/bbl after reaching $64.06. The USD index is up 0.1%, likely pressuring dollar-denominated crude.
- With the support of a number of Democrats, the bill to provide US government funding until 30 January passed the Senate. The House of Reps will vote on Wednesday EST.
- After Saudi Arabia reduced its price premium for shipments to Asia, Kuwait has set December deliveries to Europe at a $2/bbl discount while the US faces a $2.90/bbl premium.
- Attention remains firmly on the expected record 2026 market surplus with the IEA’s monthly report published on 13 November, while its annual outlook, EIA short-term energy outlook & OPEC report are out 12 November. The IEA increased its 2026 surplus forecast in its October monthly report.
- US President Trump said that a US-India trade deal is close which would reduce the average tariff rate. However, Russia’s Interfax reported that India continues to buy Russian crude despite Trump commending them for reducing purchases.
- The US bond market is shut for Veterans Day, which could impact oil trading volumes, but equities will be open. Later ECB President Lagarde speaks. US October NFIB small business optimism, UK labour market data and euro area /German November ZEW print.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
