CHILE: CPI Inflation Expected to Fall Further Below 3% Target in February

The New York Times has published a broad assessment of the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, noting a drastic increase in tariff revenue and a shrinking of the US trade deficit. However, the policies have yet to reverse a decline in manufacturing jobs, according to the report. 

• The Times notes, “The United States collected an estimated $287 billion in customs duties, taxes and fees last year, nearly triple the amount in 2024.”
• The report adds, “The price effects from tariffs have, however, been somewhat smaller than many originally anticipated, partly because companies have been hesitant to raise prices for fear of losing customers.”
• The report notes on manufacturing, “Trump’s supporters argue that it will take time for factories to be built and this trend to be reversed. They have pointed to recent gains in industrial production and capital expenditure to suggest that the country is on the verge of a manufacturing boom because of tariffs.”

Figure 1: US imports by trading partner

Source: New York Times

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021       
• RES 3: 1.3889 1.00 proj of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 - Jan 19 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and the bull trigger   
• RES 1: 1.3814 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 1.3698 @ 16:12 GMT Feb 03
• SUP 1: 1.3623 Low Feb 02
• SUP 2: 1.3586 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3479 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.3402 Low Jan 22  

GBPUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The latest pullback is considered corrective and a continuation lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The initial firm support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3586. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 1.3479 - a pivot level. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.3868, the Jan 27 high.        

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/03 $7B #Bank of America $2.75B 6NC5 +63, $500M 6NC5 SOFR+108, $3.75B 11NC10 +78
• 02/03 $4B *EIB 10Y SOFR+43
• 02/03 $2.75B #Lloyds $1.25B 4NC3 +60, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+77, $1B 21NC20 +82
• 02/03 $2B *New Development Bank 3Y SOFR+49
• 02/03 $2B Black Pearl Compute 5NC2 
• 02/03 $1.3B #NextEra Energy $700M 5Y +57, $600M 30Y +97
• 02/03 $1.2B #National Rural Utilities 1.5Y SOFR+43, 3Y +43
• 02/03 $1.1B #PacifiCorp 30.5NC5.25 7.125%
• 02/03 $1B #Deutsche Bank 6NC5 +90
• 02/03 $1B United Airlines 3NC 4.875%
• 02/03 $500M #McCormick 3Y +53
• 02/03 $Benchmark American Express 3NC2 +45, 3NC2 SOFR+59, 6NC5 +63, 15NC10 +115
• 02/03 $Benchmark Visa 3Y +20, 5Y +30, 7Y +40, 10Y +45