PHILIPPINES: CPI Decline Opens Door For BSP
- The decline in March inflation provides an opportunity for the Central Bank (the “BSP”) to cut at their meeting next week.
- The BSP has an inflation target of 2.0 – 4.0 percent for 2025 – 2026 and set the same inflation target for 2027 – 2028.27
- March’s YoY CPI fell to +1.8%, the first print below target since September 2024.
- Leading into the September CPI print the BSP had cut in August, following up with cuts in October and December.
- The MoM CPI release for March was negative for a second straight month at -0.2% - the same as in September last year.
- Core consumer prices in March was +2.2% y/y with a downward trend in food prices in place according the Statistics Agency.
- The forecasts for next week are somewhat mixed with the majority of those surveyed forecasting a cut of 25bps, with one outlier at 50bps
- The BSP meetings on 10 April to decide on the Overnight Borrowing Rate and the Standing Overnight Deposit Facility Rate.
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Housing transactions in major cities may continue to rise in March as local authorities relax policies, Yicai.com reported citing analysts. In February, the average price of new homes in 100 cities rose by 0.11% m/m, while those in first-tier cities increased 0.24%, data by China Index Academy showed. Demand for upgrades to high-end and luxury homes was a primary driver, pushing up home prices and reflecting increased confidence, the newspaper said.
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China's logistics industry prosperity index recorded 49.3% in February, down 0.4 percentage points from January, given fewer working days due to the Spring Festival holiday, data released by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing showed. The expectation index for business activities printed at 54.4%, indicating a substantial recovery in logistic demand in the later period, said Hu Han, deputy chief economist of CFLP. (Source: Securities Daily)
