AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.6857 High Jun 20
- RES 3:0.6768 High Jun 23
- RES 2: 0.6806 High Jun 22
- RES 1: 0.6721/0.6752 High Jun 27 / 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
- PRICE: 0.6685 @ 07:08 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
- SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
The trend outlook for AUDUSD remains bearish following recent weakness and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently traded below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6721, the Jun 27 high. A breach of this level would suggest scope for a stronger correction.
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BUNDS: Under early pressure
- Bund stays under pressure/offered, a continuation since the US Employment report.
- Volumes are still spread related with expiry on Wednesday.
- Although not big, the most notable flow is in the red Euribor strip, with above volumes overnight, gaping lower on the open, and extending lows as Bunds break session low on the cash open.
- Next support in ERM4 is at 96.59.
- Immediate support in Bund is at 134.99, followed by 134.71 initially.
- Today sees, Global services PMIs, but final for FR/GE/EU/UK/US, US Factory orders, final Durable Goods, ISM services index.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Nagel, Fed Mester.
MNI: GERMANY APR TRADE BALANCE EUR 18.4B (FCST 16B); MAR 14.9B
- MNI: GERMANY APR TRADE BALANCE EUR 18.4B (FCST 16B); MAR 14.9B
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
- RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
- RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 150.12/ 151.07 High May 31 / 29
- PRICE: 149.85 @ 06:59 BST Jun 5
- SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
- SUP 2: 147.65/146.87 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31
EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent strength resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. This break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.65, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.59, the May 31 low.
