PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.25B SEB 2Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 05/22 $1.25B #SEB (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) $750M 3Y +50, $500M 3Y SOFR+75
- 05/22 $1B *Finnvera WNG 5Y SOFR+50
- 05/22 $Benchmark Telecom Argentina 8Y 9.5%a
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Recent Gains Are Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-12 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-25 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 111-01+/17+ 20-day EMA / High Apr 16
- PRICE: 110-28+ @ 16:45 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 110-15/109-08 Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 108-21 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support
Treasury futures have pulled back from last week’s highs. For now, recent gains are considered corrective and the bear cycle that started Apr 7, remains in play. The next resistance to watch is 111-25, 50.0% of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg sell-off. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs, Curves Maintain Flatter Profile
Treasury futures are taking another leg higher in the last few minutes, Jun'25 5Y now steady at 108-11.5 vs. 108-03.25 low. No obvious headline driver.
Curves maintain flatter profile, 2s10s -4.349 at 59.852, short end under pressure ahead of this afternoon's $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMY4).
SEK: Equity Rally Lends Support To Krona
The latest extension higher in European equities provides a tailwind to the SEK, with EURSEK down 0.75% on the session at 10.8830. The cross has pierced support at 10.8842, the 61.8% retracement of the April 3 – April 11 rally. A clear breach of this level would expose the 76.4% retracement at 10.8005, which shields the April 3 low at 10.6652.
- This morning’s March LFS data was much stronger-than-expected (unemployment rate at 8.1% vs three analyst estimates of 8.5%, 8.7% and 9.2%), but we caution reading too much into volatile individual monthly prints.
- Overall though, the LFS and PES (released last week) data suggests the Swedish labour market has passed its weakest point, and should start to strengthen alongside the broader economy through the rest of 2025 - assuming past (and potentially future) rate cuts and increased fiscal spending can offset some of the negative direct and indirect impact of US tariffs.
- The Swedish data calendar is light for the remainder of this week, with focus on commentary from Riksbank’s Seim (Thursday) and Breman (Friday).
- However, broader swings in global risk sentiment and US tariff developments will likely be the most important driver of the SEK.
