PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $4B Walmart Leads Midweek Supply

• Treasuries look to finish near lows Monday as Trump admin trade policy narrowed from universal tariffs to more targeted approach when the April 2 "Liberation Day" arrives.
• Treasury futures extended lows after S&P Flash PMI services (54.3 bbg cons 51.0) and composite (53.5 cons 50.9) data came out higher then expected while manufacturing declined (49.8 bbg cons 51.7).
• Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic (non-2025 FOMC voter, leans hawk) says in a Bloomberg interview that he has reduced his 2025 rate cut expectations to 1 in March's economic projections versus 2 previously, "because I think we will see inflation be very bumpy", and delayed inflation progress warranted pushing back the path to neutral rates.
• The Jun'25 10Y currently trades 110-17 (-18), just above initial technical support at 110-16.5 (Low Mar 24) followed by 110-12.5 (Low Mar 6 & 13). Resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7). Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.3346% high, curves still mixed: 2s10s +.014 at 29.406, 5s30s -1.943 at 56.480.
• Late tariff headlines saw risk sentiment cool slightly after Trump said he would announce additional tariffs on cars "shortly" and pharmaceuticals at "some point".

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg  
• RES 2: 151.01/30 50-day EMA / High Mar 3  
• RES 1: 150.76 High Mar 24 
• PRICE: 150.54 @ 16:53 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 148.18/146.54 Low Mar 20 / 11 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 147.02 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

The primary trend direction in USDJPY is down and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is 151.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

Option desks continued to report better low delta SOFR puts sprds on net Monday, Tsy option flow rotating around 5- and 10Y calls despite continued weakness in underlying futures. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 consolidate vs. early morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -3.9bp (-4.5bp), Jun'25 at -16.7bp (-19.3bp), Jul'25 at -28bp (-31bp), Sep'25 -42.7bp (-46.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • 10,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys
  • over 20,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spds
  • +20,000 SFRH6 93.75/94.25 put spds, 0.75
  • +10,000 0QU5 95.50 puts, 3.5 vs. 96.4555/0.10%
  • 1,800 SFRK5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call spds, ref 95.90
  • 2,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.25 2x1 put spds
• Treasury Options:
  • 3,250 FVK5 110 calls, 3 ref 107-19.5
  • 2,250 TUM5 103.87/104.37 call spds ref 103-13.12
  • over 5,000 FVK5 108.5 calls, 14.5 last ref 107-22.25
  • 2,400 TYK5 112/113 call spds ref 110-19.5
  • 4,000 wk4 112.5/114 1x2 call spds
  • 15,000 TYK5 114 calls ref 110-26.5
  • over 20,000 TYK5 112/TYM5 112.5 call spds, 10 net db/June over vs. 110-31.5/0.05%
  • 3,000 TYK5 109 puts, 11 ref 110-25
  • 2,000 TYM5 111/114 call spds vs. 107.5 puts ref 110-28
  • over 4,000 FVK5 107 puts