GERMAN DATA: Core PPI Down Largely on Energy Base Effects
Jan-20 07:45
GERMANY DEC PPI -0.4% M/M (FCST -1.2%); NOV -3.9% M/M
GERMANY DEC PPI +21.6% Y/Y (FCST +20.7%); NOV +28.2% Y/Y
- German producer prices proved to be more sticky than anticipated in December, falling by a more modest -0.4% m/m after the -3.9% m/m plunge in November.
- PPI eased by a solid 6.6pp to +21.6% y/y falling for a third month from the Aug/Sep record peak of +45.8% y/y.
- Energy was again the key downward driver largely due to base effects filtering in. Yet PPI energy prices fell by a weaker -1.0% m/m in December after the -9.6% m/m November plunge.
- Ex-energy, factory-gate inflation was 0.7pp softer at +12.0% y/y, but unchanged on the month, implying that core PPI prices remained sticky into year-end.
- Food prices, as across Europe, continue to be an upward driver on prices, adding to headline CPI pressures despite easing energy costs.
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USD: Mostly on the front foot in G10s
Dec-21 07:37
- USD remains on the front foot into the Cash Govie open, albeit flat against the EUR, CAD and the Aussie.
- Worst performer is the Kiwi, a continuation of the overnight session, on recession fears.
- Although NZDUSD is off the low, with some small fade, just a few pips.
- Next immediate support comes at 0.6277, the 23.6% short term retrace of the October/December rally.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
Dec-21 07:24
- RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 1: 0.6744/6893 High Dec 20 / High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6672 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 21
- SUP 1: 0.6629 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
- SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signalled a S/T top and Tuesday’s move lower reinforced this turn. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 0.6662 - this average has been pierced. A clear break would suggest potential for a deeper retracement towards 0.6585, the Nov 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6893, Dec 13 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.
BUNDS: Testing the small opening gap
Dec-21 07:22
- A light, tight overnight range for Bund, and a 30 ticks range into the cash open.
- Although the contract is flat, it is still trading at its lowest level since the start of November.
- Further downside extension, sees support at 135.42, ahead of the 135.00 figure.
- Small resistance is at 135.96 (gap), and a clear break above the latter, opens back to 136.56.
- There's no tier 1 data for Europe, and on the other side of the Atlantic, Canadian CPI is the notable release.
- SUPPLY: US sells $12bn of 20yr reopening.
