US DATA: Core Goods And Services Both Below Expectations
Jan-15 13:46
Across core categories, we saw below-expected figures in the aggregates: core goods (0.05% vs 0.12% expected, 0.31% prior) and core services (0.27% vs 0.30% expected, 0.28% prior) were each a touch under analyst expectations. See table.
- OER and primary rents were on aggregate close to expected; lodging prices unexpectedly contracted, offset by above-expected used car and airfares (the latter was however flagged by the PPI release); auto insurance was basically in line.
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US DATA: New York State Manufacturer Optimism Moderates
Dec-16 13:41
- The Empire manufacturing survey started the December round of regional Fed surveys on a softer than expected note, printing 0.2 (cons 10.0) after a surprisingly strong 31.2 in November.
- It’s hard to call this a miss though, being a survey with a standard deviation of 25pts for the monthly change since 2022.
- Within this, new orders shifted from 28 to 6.1 but are still healthy compared to the heavily negative figures from earlier in 2024.
- The six-month ahead general outlook has been less volatile however, and here it offered a second month of moderation to 24.6. That’s the lowest since Aug via October’s cycle high of 38.7.
- It's close to the 2019 average and indeed the press release characterizes this outlook as “fairly optimistic”.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - McConnell Urges Trump To Bolster Military
Dec-16 13:31
- A raft of US President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are on Capitol Hill again today. Health Secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will meet Republican Senators for the first time.
- Trump named Richard Grenell his ‘special missions’ envoy, tasked with directing policy on Venezuela and North Korea.
- Congressional leaders are still working out the details of a Continuing Resolution to extend government funding, cutting it close to the December 20 deadline.
- Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said that health care could be targeted as the Trump administration looks to fund the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts.
- Trump’s Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, is bucking predictions that he would be less hawkish on trade than Trump's first-term USTR, Robert Lighthizer. Companies have stepped up a behind-the-scenes lobbying effort, suggesting that Trump's tariff threats are being taken as a credible risk to business.
- Trump's transition team is expected to recommend a global tariff on battery components to stimulate the domestic US battery supply chain.
- US officials confirmed that the Biden administration has established direct contact with the Syrian rebel group that ousted former president Bashar al-Assad.
- Outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has written a lengthy op-ed in Foreign Affairs magazine calling on Trump to “reverse the neglect of military strength.”
- Poll of the Day: Much of Trump's agenda gets a green light from voters, but Americans are sceptical of tariffs.
Full article: US Daily Brief
MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 0.2 DEC
Dec-16 13:30
- MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 0.2 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG NEW ORDERS 6.1 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG EMPLOYMENT INDEX -5.8 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG PRICES PAID INDEX 21.1 DEC
