US TSYS: Continue to Extend Highs Ahead No-Employment Data Friday
Oct-02 19:29
- US Treasuries hold narrow range in the second half after extend session highs into midday - no obvious headline or flow driver though US$ did scale back from midday highs (Bbg US$ index +1.39 at 1201.54 vs. 1204.58 high) while stocks finished stronger (SPX & Nasdaq making new record highs earlier).
- Currently, TYZ5 +3 at 112-30, 10Y yield -.0135 to 4.0846%. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish with next levels to watch at: 113-12/29 (High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger). Curves remain flatter: 2s10s -1.763 at 54.169, 5s30s -1.483 at 102.137.
- No weekly jobless claims or factory orders today due to the Govt shutdown - Challenger, Gray & Christmas, however, reported job cut announcements fell 25.8% Y/Y in September, less severe than consensus which had expected a 13.3% rise.
- Friday's September employment report from the BLS most likely will NOT be released tomorrow despite Sen Warren (Dem) telling CNN the "labor data has been collected and is likely ready to be released". "Let’s be clear," Warren added, "the jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the President must release it."
- Bloomberg consensus for ISM Services (1000ET) eyes a small increase to 51.5 from 50.8 in a second monthly improvement after the 49.9 in May was its lowest since Jun 2024, with prices paid looking to remain elevated.
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EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
Sep-02 19:00
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.41/97 High Sep 2 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.80 @ 16:23 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 170.69 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
EURJPY continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend structure is bullish and key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.69. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.
COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Gold Hits Fresh Record High
Sep-02 18:46
- Crude has seen support today from continued Russian supply fears, recent strikes on energy infrastructure, and oil product strength, offsetting pressure from a stronger dollar.
- WTI Oct 25 is up by 2.5% at $65.6/bbl.
- Recent Ukrainian drone attacks shut down facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity, or 1.1mn bpd, according to Reuters' calculations.
- OPEC+ will hold a meeting this weekend to decide on output for October.
- Despite today’s move, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective.
- Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has also rallied by 1.5% to $3,529/oz, taking the yellow metal to a fresh all-time high.
- UBS said that investors are adding to gold allocations as Fed rate cuts loom, and they see gold making new highs in the coming quarters.
- Today’s gains in gold have resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- The next objective is $3,547.9, a Fibonacci projection.
US: President Trump To Make 'Space HQ' Announcement Shortly
Sep-02 18:01
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to appear in the Oval Office to announce that US Space Command will be relocated from Colorado to Alabama, reversing a decision from former President Joe Biden not to move the command. LIVESTREAM
- Politico notes: "The decision ends a bitter yearslong turf war between Alabama and Colorado leaders over the best home for the unit. Each side argued the other benefited from politically motivated decisions by either Trump or Biden to reward states that voted for them."
- The Oval Office announcement is Trump's first public appearance since a Cabinet meeting last Tuesday. Trump's light schedule since that meeting has fueled social media speculation over his health, despite several trips to his golf course in Virginia and a regular stream of Truth Social posts.
- The announcement is likely to be accompanied by ad hoc remarks to the press on a range of issues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner yesterday that Trump may declare a 'national housing emergency' this fall to address rising house prices – a ‘core issue’ for the Trump administration in the coming months.
- Bessent told Fox News in a separate interview that “all options are on the table” for further sanctions on Russia, after Trump’s first deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make progress on peace talks with Ukraine passed yesterday.
