FOREX: Contained Major Ranges, NOKSEK Declines 0.5% Ahead of Regional Data
Jan-07 17:44
- FX markets have been lacking conviction to start the year, potentially in anticipation of this Friday’s US employment report. A strong ISM services release countered softer JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, keeping the dollar index in a very contained range post release, with both EURUSD and USDJPY are close to unchanged levels on the session.
- The most notable price action on Wednesday occurred during APAC hours following the release of Australian CPI. Markets quickly shrugged off lower-than-expected headline data, keeping AUD very well supported on dips. Subsequently, AUD spiked to a fresh cycle high of 0.6767, keeping topside levels of 0.6795 and 0.6858 as the next chart points of note. Meanwhile AUDNZD briefly rose to the highest level since 2013 at 1.1693.
- Elsewhere, the Swedish krona is outperforming today, rising around 0.25% against the Euro and 0.5% against the Norwegian Krone. Although the domestic growth outlook (supported by loose monetary policy and expansionary but still-responsible fiscal policy) remains SEK-supportive, analysts are cognizant that a lot of good news is already priced in.
- Technical conditions in EURSEK remain bearish, and clearance of the December 26 low of 10.7622 has narrowed the gap to key support at 10.6652 (March 4 low). We remain cognizant of key long-term support in NOKSEK at 0.9065 (April 9 low). Inflation data in Sweden (tomorrow) and Norway (Friday) will be the regional focus for the remainder of the week.
- In emerging markets, lower metals prices have stalled the impressive advance for the South African rand, prompting a 0.6% pull higher for USDZAR. Despite this, bearish conditions remain firmly intact, with initial resistance seen further out at 16.6687, the 20-day EMA.
- Swiss CPI and US jobless claims data highlight Thursday’s data calendar.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Large Jan'26 10Y Trades
Dec-08 17:25
- 30,000 TYF6 112.75/113.5 call spds, 9 net vs. 112-07 to -07.5 (potential roll-down w/ 113.5 call open interest at 378,066 coming into the session vs. 8,040 112.75 call OI).
- 8,000 wk2 TY/TYF6 112 put spds earlier
PIPELINE: Corporate Bonds - Updated Guidance
Dec-08 17:14
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 12/08 $750M Level 3 Financing 10NC5
- 12/08 $Benchmark Guardian Life 5Y +65
- 12/08 $Benchmark BNP Paribas PerpNC8 6.875%
- 12/08 $Benchmark CNO Global Funding 5Y +98
- 12/08 $Benchmark Equitable America Global Funding 3Y +70
- 12/08 $1.25B Asurion 7NC3 investor calls, pricing later in week
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Weekly, Redbook, JOLTS for Sep/Oct
Dec-08 17:11
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/09 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 12/09 0815 ADP NER Pulse weekly employ data
- 12/09 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
- 12/09 1000 JOLTS jobs data for Sep & Oct
- 12/09 1000 KC Fed LMCI
- 12/09 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 12/09 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open (91282CPJ4)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
