EM CEEMEA CREDIT: ???? ???????? Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBDUH): FY25

Further flow in the SOFR space during pre-NY trade, albeit a little more limited than what we have outlined previously:

• SFRM6/M8 paper paid 7.0 on ~1.9K.
• SFRH7/H9 paper paid 40.5 on ~1.3K.
• Some downside interest via the 0QF6 96.7500 puts, with paper paying 2.5 on 2K. 

ECB’s Kazimir has published an op-ed that continues to point to little desire to alter monetary policy whilst maintaining flexibility. Whilst some remarks could be taken as dovish, especially around the “quite worrying” long-term growth prospects, they’re caveated by the limitations for monetary policy at addressing structural factors at both national and EU levels. 

• Bloomberg reports him as saying: “We remain flexible and ready to step in should future developments warrant fresh action. Agility remains crucial.”
• While risks to the outlook have probably narrowed and become more balanced, the current period of on-target inflation and steady economic expansion is “rather fragile.”
• Specifically (and this is taken from an unofficial translation of the Slovak release in full here): “The long-term prospects for economic growth in the eurozone are not very encouraging. They are fragile and to be honest, it is quite worrying.”
• “While our monetary house is in order, the broader economic foundations are showing cracks that interest rates alone cannot fix. It is an urgent necessity to deploy decisive policies at both the national and EU levels.”
• His previous comments to Reuters on Dec 8: " I see no reason to move in the coming months [...] Definitely not in December, then we’ll see."… "The labour market remains tight, growth is a bit better and wage moderation is somewhat slower than we expected”.

• In the equity space, the recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. This would open 6737.71, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally. For bulls a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
• A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5681.57, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. This would open 5622.00, the Nov 26 low. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 5847.00, the Nov 13 high. Last Thursday’s price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal.