ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7 
• PRICE: 95.735 @ 16:19 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.

TYM5 reopens at 111-10, up 0-05 from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.

• Friday night US 10-year yields had a range of 4.1942% - 4.3297%, closing near the highs. 
• Treasury yields were quite a lot higher Friday night reacting to a strong NFP, The move was led by the front-end with the 2yr up 0.13, flattening the yield curve.(2s10s -3.25 at 48.232).
• MNI US  - Nonfarm payrolls were higher than expected at 177k (sa, cons 138k) of which private contributed 167k (sa, cons 125k).
• However, two-month revisions of -58k offset the 39k beat for nonfarm payrolls, with a similar story for private (a 42k surprise vs -48k two-month revision).
• Downward revisions were concentrated in March.
• This better than expected data drove price action for most of the US session.
• Kato : “We are not considering the sale of US Treasuries as a means of Japan-US negotiations,” Kato spoke in Milan, Italy on Sunday, where he is attending the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank.(per BBG)
• The 10-year Yield range seems to be 4.10% - 4.45%, with the pivot the 4.30% area for now.

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.620 @ 16:18 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures continue to circle just below recent contract highs, having cleared resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.