CNH: CNH Lags G10 Gains On Friday, Citi China Surprise Index Lower
USD/CNH tracks near 7.1880 in early Monday dealings, little changed versus end Friday levels for the pair. CNH lost a little ground on Friday, underperforming softer USD index levels (DXY finished down 0.41%, the BBDXY off 0.25%). Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.1845, while CNY CFETS basket tracker rose 0.27% to 96.17, per BBG.
- The USD slipped against the majors on Friday, with a poor set of retail sales and Uni of Michigan sentiment numbers meeting a higher-than-expected import price index to further stimulate concerns over a stagflationary phase in the US economy.
- Broader market focus over the weekend was on the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting. Ukraine President Zelenskiy will meet with Trump on Monday, along with some key EU leaders. If a peace deal can be agreed upon, which is uncertain at this stage, risk assets will likely move higher, while energy prices would weaken (a USD negative), although CNH would likely underperform dollar softness.
- Friday's softer than forecast data outcomes in China pushed the China Citi economic surprise index to fresh lows since Oct last year see the chart below. Early Q3 growth momentum in China looks to have faltered.
- For USD/CNH recent ranges continue to hold. Upside focus will remain on a re-test above 7.2000, while recent lows rest at 7.1681.
- On the data front, on Wednesday we have the 1yr and 5yr loan prime rates, no change is expected.
Fig 1: Citi China Economic Surprise Index To Multi Month Lows
Source: Citi/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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CANADA: July BOC Cut Pricing: From Distinct Possibility To Negligible This Week
The implied probability of a July BOC rate cut has gone from a distinct possibility to negligible this week, following Tuesday's firmer-than-expected core inflation data.
- The accompanying chart shows implied pricing (in percentage points) for July's BOC decision - it dropped from around 30% implied (7+bp) prior to the labour market report last Friday, to under 20% going into CPI (4+bp), reducing after that to under 10% (<2bp).
- For the year as a whole, markets have priced out about 15bp of cuts through those two data points - now seeing about 15bp of easing through December. As such, it's very much in question whether the BOC's easing cycle is already at an end.
- Apart from the ongoing US-Canada trade negotiations, next week's scheduled highlight will be the BOC's Business Outlook Survey out Monday, followed by May Retail Sales out Thursday which will be the final major input into the macro puzzle for the BOC going into its decision on July 30.
| Meeting | Current | Last week's close (Jul 09) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) |
| Jul 30 2025 | 2.74 | 2.68 | 5.6 | -1.9 |
| Sep 17 2025 | 2.69 | 2.60 | 9.3 | -6.0 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.65 | 2.53 | 12.1 | -10.5 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.61 | 2.45 | 15.7 | -14.6 |
USDCAD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3747/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17
- PRICE: 1.3715 @ 16:56 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 1.3639/3557 Low Jul 08 / 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent highs. Attention is on resistance at 1.3747, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. This would open 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. For now, a bear trend remains firmly in place. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
US: Macro Week Ahead: A Quieter Data Week Headlined By Flash PMIs
From our US Macro Weekly (here):
- It’s a quiet economic calendar next week, headlined by flash PMIs, durable goods orders, home sales and a latest weekly update for jobless claims.
- With the start of the FOMC blackout, Fed Chair Powell’s welcome remarks on Tuesday won’t touch on monetary policy.
| Date | ET | Impact | Event |
| 22 Jul | 0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 22 Jul | 0830 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 22 Jul | 0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 22 Jul | 1000 | ** | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 22 Jul | 1300 | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 23 Jul | 0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 23 Jul | 1000 | *** | NAR existing home sales |
| 23 Jul | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 24 Jul | 0830 | *** | Jobless Claims |
| 24 Jul | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24 Jul | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24 Jul | 1000 | *** | New Home Sales |
| 24 Jul | 1100 | ** | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 24 Jul | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 25 Jul | 0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders |
