FOREX: CME FX ROLL PACE

• The greenback is more stable above yesterday's low, seeing support from yesterday's late reports that US-China trade talks will commence by the end of the week. This has tipped USD/JPY well off yesterday's lows and back above the Y143.00 handle. Nonetheless, the primary trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.33, remains intact.
• Meanwhile, GBP/USD has faded further off the Tuesday high, putting prices through the overnight low as well as 1.3329 - the 38.2% retracement of the downleg posted off the Apr28 high. The BoE decision due tomorrow should prove influential here, with the MPC seen opting for another 25bps rate cut.
• The Fed decision due later today is expected to be one of the least consequential of the year, with no change in policy expected as the FOMC look through recent market volatility and await hard economic data in the coming few months to make a decision on rates. Markets price scant chance of any move today, with the next 25bps step lower seen at the July meeting, once we get the first insight into economic behaviour post-tariffs via the NFP and CPI reports.
• Trump's schedule Wednesday is relatively light, however much focus may be paid to his participation in the swearing in ceremony for David Purdue as the US ambassador to China - often seen as a critic of China. 

French employment prospects remain soft. Private sector payrolled employment was flat in Q1, according to preliminary estimates, while annual growth was -0.3% Y/Y (vs -0.1% prior). This softening in employment is consistent with recent falls in the EC’s Expected Employment Indicator, which has broadly been seen across industries.  

• Employment references from the April PMI round were also weak:
  • Services: “The latest survey data revealed there was a further trimming of employment across the French service sector in April. The nonreplacement of leavers was a common method through which workforce capacity was lowered, according to panel member reports. In some cases, firms cited recruitment difficulties. The pace at which jobs were shed was moderate overall”.
  • Manufacturing: “There was a further fall in employment, albeit one that was only marginal and the softest in almost two years”.
  • Construction: “Cutbacks to employment were once again made by French construction companies during the latest survey period, extending the current job shedding sequence to precisely a year. The extent to which workforce numbers dipped was moderate overall”.
• Preliminary Q1 wages rose 0.7% Q/Q, but annual growth eased to 2.1% Y/Y (vs 2.8% prior). The Indeed wage tracker has tracked at sub-2% levels through the year.
• This softening in compensation pressures is already being reflected in core inflation measures. In the April flash round, core HICP inflation was 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.8% prior).

RXM5 129p, bought for 13 in 2.9k.