TARIFFS: China FM Spox-US & China Have Not Held Tariff Consultations
(MNI) London - Chinese Foreign Ministry spox Guo Jiakun speaking in a daily press conference says that China and the US "have not held consultations and negotiations on tariffs", adds that "respect is [a] condition for any talks to happen", and "[China] will fight [a] tariff war if we must." Says that the US "needs to stop threats if it wants talks". Claims that the "US 'tariff tsunami' breaks WTO rules."
- The comments come after US President Donald Trump implied on 23 April that talks may be underway, or close to underway. As MNI noted (see 'TARIFFS: Trump Appears To Hint That Talks Between US And China Are 'Active', 1639BST), "Asked by a reporter, "are you going to be talking to [China] actively?" Trump appears to respond in the affirmative, saying: "actively everything's active. Everybody wants to be a part of what we're doing." While not a full confirmation, Trump's comments could suggest that high-level trade talks with China could get underway shortly, after a weeks-long standoff."
- The shift in rhetoric in recent days, at least from Washington, D.C., has been notable in talking up the prospect of a deal being reached. This has yet to be matched in Beijing, where there may be an inclination to wait and allow the White House to (seemingly) be manoeuvred by financial markets into a more favourable negotiating position.
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BUNDS: Early focus will be on Supply
- A very tight range for the Bund overnight going into the European session, and the contract trades within Yesterday's 42 ticks range.
- Resistance moves down to 128.66, but better is seen towards 128.83.
- Supports are unchanged, at 127.88, followed by 127.45.
- It is worth keeping an eye on the US Tnotes (TYM5), Fed Bostic now favours 1 cut instead of 2 on the Tariff risks, and a break through 110.12+ support and 110.08, could open the contract for further lows.
- Today sees the German IFO, and out of the US, not normally a Market Mover, the Consumer Confidence given the Tariffs debacle.
- SUPPLY: UK £2bn 2023 (equates to 25.2k Gilt) could somewhat weigh, Germany €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 38.3k Bobl) should weigh, US Sells $69bn of 2yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: France 2043 (shouldn't impact Bond futures).
- SPEAKERS: ECB Kazimir, Muller, Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Fed Williams.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.63 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
- SUP 2: 160.28 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A recent sell-off in EURJPY appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.37, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.48 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.25 @ Close Mar 25
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Recent gains in BTP futures appear corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.48, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
