EM LATAM CREDIT: Celulosa Arauco: S&P Outlook to Neg

Euribor upside: ERM6 98.375/98.50/98.75/98.875 call condor, bought for 1 in 10k.

• ERM6 currently +1.5 ticks today at 98.045.

Bailey's comments here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/october/andrew-bailey-keynote-speech-at-scotland-global-investment-summit-2025

• Nothing here on monpol. Summary reads: "Andrew Bailey calls for a supportive environment for investment to drive innovation and economic growth, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like AI. He highlights the importance of pragmatic policy frameworks, strong infrastructure and welcomes reforms to mobilise institutional investment into high-potential UK businesses."
• Neither the words 'Inflation' nor 'monetary' appear in Bailey's speech, however he does reaffirm the importance of productivity in driving living standards, on which he says he is optimistic on the UK.

Speaking at a press conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) did not indicate a shift in the GOP’s government shutdown strategy ahead of a fifth Senate vote on the House-passed Nov. 21 funding bill at roughly 17:30 ET 22:30 BST. 

• Johnson said, “We need [Democrat Leader] Chuck Schumer [D-NY] to reopen the government and as soon as he does that, I will bring everybody back.”
• Johnson said on potential Obamacare negotiations, “The last time I checked, it’s Oct. 6. We have the entire month of October... We have to get the government open again to do it”
• Johnson: “People are starting to recognize this is not a Republican shutdown. It is a Schumer Democrat shutdown… They'll have another opportunity this evening. And I sure pray... a handful of additional commonsense people on the Democrat side will change their votes, reopen the government.”
• It’s worth noting that shutdowns rarely happen when one party controls the White House and both chambers of Congress. As Democrats have forced a shutdown by using leverage over the Senate filibuster, the GOP has the power to control the floor of both chambers.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) intends to re-run the CR vote until Democrats fold. Johnson’s control of the House means Democrats cannot pass any competing funding legislation, and he is using his scheduling authority to keep lawmakers out of Washington, preventing any rank-and-file negotiations.
• While there is no sign that Democrats are ready to fold yet, it is hard to see Democrat unity in the Senate holding in the long term.